Football · Australia Queensland Premier League 2 · 29/08, 11:30
Prediction: Grange Thistle vs Moreton City Excelsior B
Team pages: Grange Thistle · Moreton City Excelsior B
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.83Total
Grange Thistle2.28
Moreton City Excelsior B1.55
1X2
Grange Thistle
Draw
Moreton City Excelsior B
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Grange Thistle
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Moreton City Excelsior B
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Grange Thistle
2–2
Moreton City Excelsior B
(4 last)
- Grange Thistle4-0Moreton City Excelsior B
- Moreton City Excelsior B2-3Grange Thistle
- Moreton City Excelsior B2-0Grange Thistle
- Grange Thistle1-2Moreton City Excelsior B
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Grange Thistle 1566 · Moreton City Excelsior B 1471
| Grange Thistle | Draw | Moreton City Excelsior B | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| Market | 53% | 21% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.83 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grange Thistle (rating 1566 vs 1471).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Grange Thistle | Moreton City Excelsior B | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.8 | 2.2 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 40/0/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 7.3 | 0.8 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 1.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Grange Thistle 2–0–2 Moreton City Excelsior B
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Grange Thistle | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Moreton City Excelsior B |
| 18/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Moreton City Excelsior B | 2-3 HT 0-3 | Grange Thistle |
| 07/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Moreton City Excelsior B | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Grange Thistle |
| 10/05/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Grange Thistle | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Moreton City Excelsior B |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SWQ Thunder | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 51 | 25 | 45 |
| 2 | Grange Thistle | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 48 | 25 | 44 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior B | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 55 | 38 | 35 |
| 4 | Pine Hills | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 35 |
| 5 | Souths United | 22 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 34 | 40 | 31 |
| 6 | Brisbane Knights | 22 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 49 | 31 |
| 7 | Taringa Rovers | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 34 | 43 | 31 |
| 8 | Mitchelton FC | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 46 | 43 | 30 |
| 9 | Caloundra | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 48 | 52 | 29 |
| 10 | Virginia United | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 29 | 33 | 29 |
| 11 | Southside Eagles | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 43 | 48 | 25 |
| 12 | Samford Rangers | 22 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 22 | 63 | 12 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Grange Thistle | Moreton City Excelsior B |
|---|---|---|
| Caloundra | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Samford Rangers | 0-0 D | 8-2 W |
| Brisbane Knights | 1-2 L | 1-6 L |
| Virginia United | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Mitchelton FC | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| SWQ Thunder | 2-1 W | 3-3 D |
| Taringa Rovers | 0-0 D | 5-0 W |
| Southside Eagles | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Grange Thistle (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Grange Thistle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Caloundra Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 01/08 | Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Moreton City Excelsior B Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/07 | Brisbane Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 15 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/06 | SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 20/06 | Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/06 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
Moreton City Excelsior B
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Brisbane Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 09/08 | Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-3 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 01/08 | Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Grange Thistle Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 19/07 | Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
3-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 04/07 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Souths United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 13/06 | Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
3-1 | 8-2 | – | – | W |
| 06/06 | Caloundra Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Grange Thistle vs Moreton City Excelsior B?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Grange Thistle win (53%). Probabilities: Grange Thistle 53%, draw 21%, Moreton City Excelsior B 25%.
How many goals are expected in Grange Thistle vs Moreton City Excelsior B?
The model expects 3.83 goals (Grange Thistle 2.28 · Moreton City Excelsior B 1.55), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Grange Thistle vs Moreton City Excelsior B?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.