Football · Rwanda National League · 05/09, 19:00

Prediction: SC Kiyovu vs Gorilla FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.72Total

SC Kiyovu1.07

Gorilla FC0.65

1X2

46% 32% 23%

SC Kiyovu Draw Gorilla FC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 52% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Kiyovu 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWLDDWWDDD

Gorilla FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWLDLW

Head-to-head

SC Kiyovu 4–2–0 Gorilla FC (6 last)

SC Kiyovu0-0Gorilla FC
Gorilla FC0-1SC Kiyovu
SC Kiyovu3-1Gorilla FC
Gorilla FC1-1SC Kiyovu
Gorilla FC0-1SC Kiyovu
SC Kiyovu3-1Gorilla FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Kiyovu 1568 · Gorilla FC 1523

	SC Kiyovu	Draw	Gorilla FC
Our model	44%	35%	21%
Market	47%	29%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 1.72 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SC Kiyovu (rating 1568 vs 1523).
H2H favours SC Kiyovu: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Kiyovu	Gorilla FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.4	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.5 / 4.1	2.4 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.10

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:45 +6’	1.91	3.10	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Kiyovu 4–2–0 Gorilla FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/01/26 Rwanda National League	SC Kiyovu	0-0 HT 0-0	Gorilla FC
27/11/25 Rwanda National League	Gorilla FC	0-1 HT 0-1	SC Kiyovu
01/03/25 Rwanda National League	SC Kiyovu	3-1 HT 0-1	Gorilla FC
15/12/24 Rwanda National League	Gorilla FC	1-1 HT 1-0	SC Kiyovu
10/02/24 Rwanda National League	Gorilla FC	0-1 HT 0-0	SC Kiyovu
23/01/24 Rwanda Cup	SC Kiyovu	3-1 HT 1-0	Gorilla FC

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Hilal Omdurman	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Merrikh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Amagaju	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	APR FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AS Kigali	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bugesera	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Etincelles	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Etoile de L'Est	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gasogi Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gicumbi FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gorilla FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Marines FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mukura	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Musanze FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Police FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rayon Sports FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Kiyovu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sunrise FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Kiyovu	Gorilla FC
Rayon Sports FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Police FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
AS Muhanga	1-1 D	2-1 W
Al Merrikh	1-0 W	3-1 W
Musanze FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Etincelles	0-0 D	0-4 L
Gasogi Utd	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 5 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gorilla FC (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Kiyovu

WWLDDWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/05	Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
24/05	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
16/05	AS Muhanga Rwanda National League	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
10/05	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
05/05	Amagaju Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
02/05	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
26/04	Etincelles Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
18/04	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
03/04	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
22/03	Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	1	3	W

Gorilla FC

WWLWDWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
26/05	Etincelles Rwanda National League	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
15/05	Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
09/05	Mukura Rwanda National League	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
06/05	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
01/05	Police FC Rwanda National League	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/04	AS Muhanga Rwanda National League	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
17/04	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
05/04	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	1-1	2-1	8	7	W
21/03	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Kiyovu vs Gorilla FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SC Kiyovu win (46%). Probabilities: SC Kiyovu 46%, draw 32%, Gorilla FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in SC Kiyovu vs Gorilla FC?

The model expects 1.72 goals (SC Kiyovu 1.07 · Gorilla FC 0.65), with a 57% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Kiyovu vs Gorilla FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.