Football · Argentina Nacional B · 21/08, 20:30

Prediction: CA San Telmo vs Deportivo Moron

Team pages: CA San Telmo · Deportivo Moron

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.98Total

CA San Telmo0.9

Deportivo Moron1.08

1X2

29% 33% 38%

CA San Telmo Draw Deportivo Moron

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

CA San Telmo 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Deportivo Moron 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

CA San Telmo 2–2–2 Deportivo Moron (6 last)

Deportivo Moron1-0CA San Telmo
CA San Telmo1-2Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Moron1-1CA San Telmo
CA San Telmo1-1Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Moron1-2CA San Telmo
Deportivo Moron1-2CA San Telmo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA San Telmo 1447 · Deportivo Moron 1550

	CA San Telmo	Draw	Deportivo Moron
Our model	28%	34%	38%
Market	29%	33%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 1.98 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Moron (rating 1447 vs 1550).
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA San Telmo	Deportivo Moron
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.2	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	1.3 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.20

X2.75

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.76
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.73 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:35 +5’	3.20	2.75	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:40	2.97	2.76	2.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA San Telmo 2–2–2 Deportivo Moron

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Argentina Nacional B	Deportivo Moron	1-0 HT 0-0	CA San Telmo
19/07/25 Argentina Nacional B	CA San Telmo	1-2 HT 1-1	Deportivo Moron
15/03/25 Argentina Nacional B	Deportivo Moron	1-1 HT 0-0	CA San Telmo
21/07/24 Argentina Nacional B	CA San Telmo	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Moron
03/03/24 Argentina Nacional B	Deportivo Moron	1-2 HT 1-2	CA San Telmo
16/10/23 Argentina Nacional B	Deportivo Moron	1-2 HT 0-0	CA San Telmo

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	25	15	4	6	31	23	49
2	Deportivo Moron	24	13	5	6	39	22	44
3	Colon	25	11	9	5	32	19	42
4	Almirante Brown	25	10	8	7	20	16	38
5	Deportivo Madryn	24	9	10	5	32	24	37
6	Godoy Cruz	24	10	7	7	28	22	37
7	CA Estudiantes Caseros	25	9	8	8	22	20	35
8	Club Ciudad de Bolivar	25	8	10	7	21	22	34
9	Los Andes	24	8	9	7	20	14	33
10	Racing de Cordoba	25	8	7	10	23	28	31
11	Club Atletico Mitre	25	6	11	8	25	29	29
12	CA San Miguel	24	6	11	7	19	23	29
13	Defensores de Belgrano	24	5	11	8	16	21	26
14	Central Norte	24	5	9	10	15	24	24
15	All Boys	24	4	12	8	14	23	24
16	CA San Telmo	24	5	8	11	18	27	23
17	CA Chaco For Ever	24	5	7	12	21	29	22
18	Acassuso	24	5	7	12	18	29	22

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA San Telmo	Deportivo Moron
CA Chaco For Ever	1-3 L	0-2 L
Ferro Carril Oeste	1-2 L	4-0 W
Deportivo Madryn	0-0 D	2-2 D
Defensores de Belgrano	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Moron (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA San Telmo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Quilmes Argentina Nacional B	0-2	0-3	7	4	L
09/08	Colon Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
02/08	CA San Miguel Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
26/07	Racing de Cordoba Argentina Nacional B	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
11/07	CA Chaco For Ever Argentina Nacional B	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
05/07	Ferro Carril Oeste Argentina Nacional B	0-2	1-2	3	3	L
20/06	Racing de Cordoba Argentina Nacional B	2-0	2-0	2	6	W
14/06	Central Norte Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
07/06	Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
30/05	Defensores de Belgrano Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	2	8	L

Deportivo Moron

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Almagro Argentina Nacional B	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
09/08	Acassuso Argentina Nacional B	3-1	4-1	2	9	W
02/08	CA Chaco For Ever Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
26/07	Ferro Carril Oeste Argentina Nacional B	2-0	4-0	6	7	W
11/07	Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B	0-0	2-2	5	2	D
04/07	Defensores de Belgrano Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
21/06	Ferro Carril Oeste Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
13/06	Club Ciudad de Bolivar Argentina Nacional B	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
07/06	Almirante Brown Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	5	8	W
31/05	Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B	2-0	3-1	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA San Telmo vs Deportivo Moron?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportivo Moron win (38%). Probabilities: CA San Telmo 29%, draw 33%, Deportivo Moron 38%.

How many goals are expected in CA San Telmo vs Deportivo Moron?

The model expects 1.98 goals (CA San Telmo 0.9 · Deportivo Moron 1.08), with a 52% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CA San Telmo vs Deportivo Moron?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.