Football · Hungary NB I · 28/08, 20:00

Prediction: Debreceni VSC vs MTK Budapest

Team pages: Debreceni VSC · MTK Budapest

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Debreceni VSC1.64

MTK Budapest1.32

1X2

44% 26% 30%

Debreceni VSC Draw MTK Budapest

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Debreceni VSC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLWLLWDD

MTK Budapest 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Debreceni VSC 2–2–2 MTK Budapest (6 last)

Debreceni VSC2-2MTK Budapest
MTK Budapest3-0Debreceni VSC
Debreceni VSC1-0MTK Budapest
Debreceni VSC0-0MTK Budapest
MTK Budapest0-2Debreceni VSC
Debreceni VSC2-3MTK Budapest

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Debreceni VSC 1481 · MTK Budapest 1515

	Debreceni VSC	Draw	MTK Budapest
Our model	44%	26%	30%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Debreceni VSC	MTK Budapest
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.3	2.1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 13:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.16
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.63 ★
2	2.90 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.05

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:03 +8’	2.05	3.40	2.90
11:13 +2’	2.10▲	3.40	2.88▼
13:30 +8’	2.05▼	3.40	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:09 +1’	2.04	3.70	3.14
02:11	1.97▼	3.81▲	3.35▲
07:05 +1’	2.02▲	3.77▼	3.25▼
08:09	2.12▲	3.70▼	3.08▼
09:08 +1’	2.15▲	3.68▼	3.03▼
11:13 +1’	2.22▲	3.64▼	2.93▼
12:23 +2’	2.16▼	3.63▼	3.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Debreceni VSC 2–2–2 MTK Budapest

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 Hungary NB I	Debreceni VSC	2-2 HT 0-0	MTK Budapest
09/11/25 Hungary NB I	MTK Budapest	3-0 HT 2-0	Debreceni VSC
01/08/25 Hungary NB I	Debreceni VSC	1-0 HT 0-0	MTK Budapest
03/05/25 Hungary NB I	Debreceni VSC	0-0 HT 0-0	MTK Budapest
07/02/25 Hungary NB I	MTK Budapest	0-2 HT 0-1	Debreceni VSC
28/09/24 Hungary NB I	Debreceni VSC	2-3 HT 1-1	MTK Budapest

Standings · Hungary NB I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Puskas Academy	5	4	0	1	9	6	12
2	Gyori ETO	4	2	2	0	10	3	8
3	Vasas SC	5	2	2	1	9	4	8
4	MTK Budapest	5	2	2	1	11	8	8
5	Ujpest	5	2	1	2	10	9	7
6	Paksi	5	2	1	2	12	12	7
7	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus	5	2	0	3	5	9	6
8	Kisvarda FC	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
9	Debreceni VSC	5	1	2	2	4	7	5
10	Ferencvarosi TC	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
11	Zalaegerszegi TE	5	1	0	4	5	14	3
12	Kispest Honved	4	0	3	1	7	8	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Debreceni VSC	MTK Budapest
Kisvarda FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Nyiregyhaza Spartacus	1-0 W	2-1 W
Ujpest	2-4 L	1-1 D
Puskas Academy	0-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: MTK Budapest (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Debreceni VSC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Kisvarda FC Hungary NB I	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
16/08	Gyori ETO Hungary NB I	0-1	1-1	13	5	D
09/08	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus Hungary NB I	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
02/08	Ujpest Hungary NB I	1-2	2-4	11	6	L
26/07	Puskas Academy Hungary NB I	0-2	0-2	8	6	L
16/05	Ujpest Hungary NB I	2-0	2-1	7	7	W
03/05	Paksi Hungary NB I	2-2	2-5	3	8	L
26/04	Gyori ETO Hungary NB I	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
18/04	Diosgyori VTK Hungary NB I	2-0	5-0	4	0	W
13/04	Kisvarda FC Hungary NB I	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

MTK Budapest

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus Hungary NB I	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
15/08	Ujpest Hungary NB I	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
07/08	Puskas Academy Hungary NB I	0-2	2-3	8	6	L
01/08	Kispest Honved Hungary NB I	1-2	3-3	3	4	D
27/07	Zalaegerszegi TE Hungary NB I	1-0	3-0	1	2	W
15/05	Puskas Academy Hungary NB I	0-0	2-2	4	5	D
02/05	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus Hungary NB I	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
24/04	Kazincbarcikai BSC Hungary NB I	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
18/04	Kisvarda FC Hungary NB I	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
11/04	Zalaegerszegi TE Hungary NB I	0-0	3-0	0	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Debreceni VSC vs MTK Budapest?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Debreceni VSC win (44%). Probabilities: Debreceni VSC 44%, draw 26%, MTK Budapest 30%.

How many goals are expected in Debreceni VSC vs MTK Budapest?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Debreceni VSC 1.64 · MTK Budapest 1.32), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Debreceni VSC vs MTK Budapest?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.