Football · Japan Regional League · 16/08, 11:00

Prediction: Aries Toshima FC vs Toin Yokohama University

Team pages: Aries Toshima FC · Toin Yokohama University

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Aries Toshima FC1.51

Toin Yokohama University1.28

1X2

42% 26% 31%

Aries Toshima FC Draw Toin Yokohama University

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Aries Toshima FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDWWWWLL

Toin Yokohama University 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWLDWWLL

Head-to-head

Aries Toshima FC 2–2–0 Toin Yokohama University (4 last)

Toin Yokohama University0-1Aries Toshima FC
Aries Toshima FC2-2Toin Yokohama University
Toin Yokohama University2-3Aries Toshima FC
Aries Toshima FC1-1Toin Yokohama University

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aries Toshima FC 1497 · Toin Yokohama University 1485

	Aries Toshima FC	Draw	Toin Yokohama University
Our model	42%	27%	31%
Market	43%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Aries Toshima FC: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aries Toshima FC	Toin Yokohama University
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.2	1.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.16
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.95 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
05:45 +3’	2.10	3.50	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:47	2.14	3.18	2.91
09:15	2.16▲	3.23▲	2.95▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aries Toshima FC 2–2–0 Toin Yokohama University

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
20/09/25 Japan Regional League	Toin Yokohama University	0-1 HT 0-1	Aries Toshima FC
29/06/25 Japan Regional League	Aries Toshima FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Toin Yokohama University
16/09/24 Japan Regional League	Toin Yokohama University	2-3 HT 1-1	Aries Toshima FC
23/06/24 Japan Regional League	Aries Toshima FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Toin Yokohama University

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aries Toshima FC	Toin Yokohama University
Shibuya City FC	1-2 L	3-3 D
Toho Titanium	0-1 L	1-2 L
Nihon University	4-1 W	3-2 W
EDO ALL United	3-2 W	0-2 L
Nankatsu SC	2-1 W	1-3 L
Ryutsu Keizai Dragons	2-1 W	2-0 W
Tokyo 23 FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Tokyo United FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Toin Yokohama University (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aries Toshima FC

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Shibuya City FC Japan Regional League	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
12/07	Toho Titanium Japan Regional League	0-1	0-1	5	0	L
05/07	Nihon University Japan Regional League	2-0	4-1	4	1	W
07/06	EDO ALL United Japan Regional League	2-1	3-2	2	2	W
30/05	Nankatsu SC Japan Regional League	1-0	2-1	5	9	W
17/05	Ryutsu Keizai Dragons Japan Regional League	1-1	2-1	10	5	W
05/05	Tokyo 23 FC Japan Regional League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
18/04	Tokyo United FC Japan Regional League	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
12/04	Shibuya City FC Japan Regional League	0-0	0-2	5	1	L
04/04	Toho Titanium Japan Regional League	0-0	0-4	8	3	L

Toin Yokohama University

DLWWLDWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	EDO ALL United Japan Regional League	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
19/07	Nankatsu SC Japan Regional League	0-3	1-3	3	2	L
12/07	Ryutsu Keizai Dragons Japan Regional League	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
04/07	Tokyo 23 FC Japan Regional League	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
07/06	Shibuya City FC Japan Regional League	1-0	3-3	4	3	D
30/05	Toho Titanium Japan Regional League	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
16/05	Nihon University Japan Regional League	3-0	3-2	4	0	W
02/05	Tokyo United FC Japan Regional League	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
19/04	EDO ALL United Japan Regional League	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
12/04	Nankatsu SC Japan Regional League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aries Toshima FC vs Toin Yokohama University?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aries Toshima FC win (42%). Probabilities: Aries Toshima FC 42%, draw 26%, Toin Yokohama University 31%.

How many goals are expected in Aries Toshima FC vs Toin Yokohama University?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Aries Toshima FC 1.51 · Toin Yokohama University 1.28), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aries Toshima FC vs Toin Yokohama University?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.