Football · Japan Regional League · 23/08, 10:30

Prediction: Tokyo United FC vs Toin Yokohama University

Team pages: Tokyo United FC · Toin Yokohama University

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Tokyo United FC1.89

Toin Yokohama University0.93

1X2

59% 23% 18%

Tokyo United FC Draw Toin Yokohama University

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tokyo United FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWWWDL

Toin Yokohama University 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWWLLL

Head-to-head

Tokyo United FC 3–2 Toin Yokohama University (5 last)

Toin Yokohama University2-1Tokyo United FC
Tokyo United FC2-1Toin Yokohama University
Toin Yokohama University1-2Tokyo United FC
Toin Yokohama University3-0Tokyo United FC
Tokyo United FC2-0Toin Yokohama University

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tokyo United FC 1544 · Toin Yokohama University 1477

	Tokyo United FC	Draw	Toin Yokohama University
Our model	59%	24%	17%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tokyo United FC (rating 1544 vs 1477).
H2H favours Tokyo United FC: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tokyo United FC	Toin Yokohama University
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 5.1	1.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:28 +2’	1.50	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tokyo United FC 3–0–2 Toin Yokohama University

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Japan Regional League	Toin Yokohama University	2-1 HT 1-1	Tokyo United FC
31/08/25 Japan Regional League	Tokyo United FC	2-1 HT 0-0	Toin Yokohama University
18/05/25 Japan Regional League	Toin Yokohama University	1-2 HT 0-0	Tokyo United FC
14/07/24 Japan Regional League	Toin Yokohama University	3-0 HT 1-0	Tokyo United FC
06/04/24 Japan Regional League	Tokyo United FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Toin Yokohama University

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tokyo United FC	Toin Yokohama University
Toho Titanium	1-2 L	1-2 L
EDO ALL United	1-1 D	0-2 L
Shibuya City FC	3-0 W	3-3 D
Nankatsu SC	1-0 W	1-3 L
Ryutsu Keizai Dragons	4-2 W	2-0 W
Tokyo 23 FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Aries Toshima FC	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Tokyo United FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tokyo United FC

WDWLDWWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Toho Titanium Japan Regional League	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
19/07	EDO ALL United Japan Regional League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
11/07	Shibuya City FC Japan Regional League	0-0	3-0	5	2	W
05/07	Nankatsu SC Japan Regional League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
07/06	Ryutsu Keizai Dragons Japan Regional League	2-1	4-2	5	4	W
16/05	Tokyo 23 FC Japan Regional League	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
02/05	Toin Yokohama University Japan Regional League	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
18/04	Aries Toshima FC Japan Regional League	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
12/04	EDO ALL United Japan Regional League	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
04/04	Shibuya City FC Japan Regional League	0-0	2-0	5	3	W

Toin Yokohama University

LWWLDWWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Aries Toshima FC Japan Regional League	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
26/07	EDO ALL United Japan Regional League	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
19/07	Nankatsu SC Japan Regional League	0-3	1-3	3	2	L
12/07	Ryutsu Keizai Dragons Japan Regional League	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
04/07	Tokyo 23 FC Japan Regional League	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
07/06	Shibuya City FC Japan Regional League	1-0	3-3	4	3	D
30/05	Toho Titanium Japan Regional League	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
16/05	Nihon University Japan Regional League	3-0	3-2	4	0	W
02/05	Tokyo United FC Japan Regional League	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
19/04	EDO ALL United Japan Regional League	0-2	0-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tokyo United FC vs Toin Yokohama University?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tokyo United FC win (59%). Probabilities: Tokyo United FC 59%, draw 23%, Toin Yokohama University 18%.

How many goals are expected in Tokyo United FC vs Toin Yokohama University?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Tokyo United FC 1.89 · Toin Yokohama University 0.93), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tokyo United FC vs Toin Yokohama University?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.