Football · Azerbaijan Division 1 · 16/10, 13:00

Prediction: Baku Sporting FC vs Moik Baku

Team pages: Baku Sporting FC · Moik Baku

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Baku Sporting FC0.97

Moik Baku1.4

1X2

26% 28% 46%

Baku Sporting FC Draw Moik Baku

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Baku Sporting FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLDWWDLLLL

Moik Baku 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWLDWW

Head-to-head

Baku Sporting FC 2–3–1 Moik Baku (6 last)

Baku Sporting FC3-1Moik Baku
Baku Sporting FC2-0Moik Baku
Moik Baku0-0Baku Sporting FC
Baku Sporting FC0-0Moik Baku
Moik Baku1-0Baku Sporting FC
Baku Sporting FC0-0Moik Baku

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Baku Sporting FC 1466 · Moik Baku 1490

	Baku Sporting FC	Draw	Moik Baku
Our model	25%	30%	46%
Market	26%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Baku Sporting FC: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Baku Sporting FC	Moik Baku
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.6	2.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.40

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
05:56 +8’	3.40	3.40	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Baku Sporting FC 2–3–1 Moik Baku

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/04/26 Azerbaijan Division 1	Baku Sporting FC	3-1 HT 2-0	Moik Baku
12/02/26 Azerbaijan Division 1	Baku Sporting FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Moik Baku
22/10/25 Azerbaijan Division 1	Moik Baku	0-0 HT 0-0	Baku Sporting FC
23/05/25 Azerbaijan Division 1	Baku Sporting FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Moik Baku
18/12/24 Azerbaijan Division 1	Moik Baku	1-0 HT 1-0	Baku Sporting FC
19/09/24 Azerbaijan Division 1	Baku Sporting FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Moik Baku

Standings · Azerbaijan Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Sahdag Qusar	4	4	0	0	13	1	12
2	Ganjabasar FK	4	4	0	0	9	2	12
3	Sabail FC	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
4	FK Karvan	4	2	1	1	7	3	7
5	Moik Baku	4	2	1	1	6	2	7
6	Zaqatala	4	1	1	2	5	11	4
7	Khankendi FK	4	0	2	2	3	6	2
8	Simal FK	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
9	Energetik Mingechevir	4	0	1	3	3	10	1
10	Baku Sporting FC	4	0	0	4	0	9	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Baku Sporting FC	Moik Baku
Zaqatala	0-3 L	2-1 W
FK Sahdag Qusar	1-1 D	0-1 L
Difai FK	1-1 D	4-0 W
Simal FK	0-1 L	1-1 D
Safa Baku	0-0 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Moik Baku (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Baku Sporting FC

DLDWWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Ganjabasar FK Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
17/09	Sabail FC Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
10/09	Zaqatala Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-3	4	7	L
03/09	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
22/05	FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
15/05	Zaqatala Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	3-0	12	1	W
07/05	Ganjabasar FK Azerbaijan Division 1	1-1	3-2	9	2	W
30/04	Difai FK Azerbaijan Division 1	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
23/04	Simal FK Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
16/04	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	2	D

Moik Baku

WLLDLWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
18/09	Khankendi FK Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
11/09	Simal FK Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
03/09	FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
21/05	Difai FK Azerbaijan Division 1	2-0	4-0	8	4	W
15/05	Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1	0-3	1-3	–	–	L
06/05	Simal FK Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
29/04	FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
22/04	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
15/04	Zaqatala Azerbaijan Division 1	2-1	2-1	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Baku Sporting FC vs Moik Baku?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Moik Baku win (46%). Probabilities: Baku Sporting FC 26%, draw 28%, Moik Baku 46%.

How many goals are expected in Baku Sporting FC vs Moik Baku?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Baku Sporting FC 0.97 · Moik Baku 1.4), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Baku Sporting FC vs Moik Baku?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.