Football · Azerbaijan Division 1 · 15/10, 13:00

Prediction: Zaqatala vs Sabail FC

Team pages: Zaqatala · Sabail FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Zaqatala0.61

Sabail FC2.26

1X2

8% 18% 75%

Zaqatala Draw Sabail FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Zaqatala 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Sabail FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Zaqatala 0–1–5 Sabail FC (6 last)

Zaqatala0-3Sabail FC
Zaqatala0-1Sabail FC
Sabail FC1-0Zaqatala
Zaqatala1-3Sabail FC
Sabail FC3-2Zaqatala
Zaqatala1-1Sabail FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaqatala 1432 · Sabail FC 1582

	Zaqatala	Draw	Sabail FC
Our model	8%	18%	74%
Market	8%	17%	75%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sabail FC (rating 1432 vs 1582).
H2H favours Sabail FC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zaqatala	Sabail FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.8	2.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.4	1.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 2.5	2.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

111.00

X5.25

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.98

2 (-1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 18:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 11.00▲	Bet365 11.00
X	3.75 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25
2	1.50 → 1.20▼	Bet365 1.20

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:40 +32’	5.50	3.75	1.50
17:11 +4’	6.25▲	4.00▲	1.42▼
18:03 +6’	11.00▲	5.25▲	1.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Zaqatala 0–1–5 Sabail FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 Azerbaijan Division 1	Zaqatala	0-3 HT 0-2	Sabail FC
05/02/26 Azerbaijan Division 1	Zaqatala	0-1 HT 0-1	Sabail FC
15/10/25 Azerbaijan Division 1	Sabail FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Zaqatala
10/12/21 Azerbaijan Cup	Zaqatala	1-3 HT 0-0	Sabail FC
24/01/21 Azerbaijan Cup	Sabail FC	3-2 HT 1-2	Zaqatala
14/04/17 Azerbaijan Division 1	Zaqatala	1-1 HT 1-0	Sabail FC

Standings · Azerbaijan Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Sahdag Qusar	5	4	0	1	13	2	12
2	Ganjabasar FK	4	4	0	0	9	2	12
3	Sabail FC	5	3	2	0	8	4	11
4	FK Karvan	4	2	1	1	7	3	7
5	Moik Baku	4	2	1	1	6	2	7
6	Simal FK	5	1	2	2	8	9	5
7	Khankendi FK	5	1	2	2	4	6	5
8	Zaqatala	5	1	1	3	6	14	4
9	Energetik Mingechevir	5	0	1	4	4	14	1
10	Baku Sporting FC	4	0	0	4	0	9	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaqatala	Sabail FC
FK Sahdag Qusar	0-6 L	0-0 D
FK Karvan	0-3 L	1-1 D
Baku Sporting FC	3-0 W	1-0 W
Energetik Mingechevir	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sabail FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zaqatala

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1	0-3	0-6	2	0	L
16/09	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Division 1	0-3	0-3	0	2	L
10/09	Baku Sporting FC Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	3-0	1	7	W
04/09	Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
22/05	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	2-1	1	8	W
15/05	Baku Sporting FC Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-3	1	1	L
06/05	Sabail FC Azerbaijan Division 1	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
29/04	Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1	0-2	1-7	4	6	L
22/04	FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
15/04	Moik Baku Azerbaijan Division 1	1-2	1-2	4	6	L

Sabail FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Division 1	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
17/09	Baku Sporting FC Azerbaijan Division 1	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
10/09	Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1	2-0	2-1	9	4	W
03/09	Khankendi FK Azerbaijan Division 1	1-1	1-1	4	7	D
22/05	Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1	1-2	1-4	3	8	L
15/05	FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
06/05	Zaqatala Azerbaijan Division 1	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
30/04	Ganjabasar FK Azerbaijan Division 1	3-0	6-0	3	3	W
23/04	Difai FK Azerbaijan Division 1	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
16/04	Simal FK Azerbaijan Division 1	1-0	4-0	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaqatala vs Sabail FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sabail FC win (75%). Probabilities: Zaqatala 8%, draw 18%, Sabail FC 75%.

How many goals are expected in Zaqatala vs Sabail FC?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Zaqatala 0.61 · Sabail FC 2.26), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Zaqatala vs Sabail FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.