Football · Spain Tercera Group 3 · 10/10, 17:00
Prediction: CD Guarnizo vs CD Bezana
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
CD Guarnizo1.37
CD Bezana1.05
1X2
CD Guarnizo
Draw
CD Bezana
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
CD Guarnizo
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
CD Bezana
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CD Guarnizo
1–3–2
CD Bezana
(6 last)
- CD Bezana1-1CD Guarnizo
- CD Guarnizo0-0CD Bezana
- CD Guarnizo1-1CD Bezana
- CD Bezana0-1CD Guarnizo
- CD Guarnizo0-2CD Bezana
- CD Bezana1-0CD Guarnizo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CD Guarnizo 1484 · CD Bezana 1548
| CD Guarnizo | Draw | CD Bezana | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 30% | 28% |
| Market | 43% | 29% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Bezana (rating 1484 vs 1548).
- H2H favours CD Bezana: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CD Guarnizo | CD Bezana | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 1.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/67/33% | 0/33/67% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0 / 4.7 | 4 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Guarnizo 1–3–2 CD Bezana
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 3 | CD Bezana | 1-1 HT 1-1 | CD Guarnizo |
| 10/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 3 | CD Guarnizo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CD Bezana |
| 01/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 3 | CD Guarnizo | 1-1 | CD Bezana |
| 19/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 3 | CD Bezana | 0-1 HT 0-0 | CD Guarnizo |
| 23/03/24 Spain Tercera Group 3 | CD Guarnizo | 0-2 | CD Bezana |
| 04/11/23 Spain Tercera Group 3 | CD Bezana | 1-0 HT 0-0 | CD Guarnizo |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezon | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 15 |
| 2 | CD Bezana | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Laredo | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Vimenor | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | CD Cayon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | SD Torina | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | UD Samano | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 8 |
| 8 | SD Revilla | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| 9 | Selaya | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 |
| 10 | CD Atletico Mineros | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 6 |
| 11 | Castro | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 12 | Escobedo | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| 13 | CD Guarnizo | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 4 |
| 14 | Solares | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 15 | Velarde | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 4 |
| 16 | At. Albericia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| 17 | Naval | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| 18 | CD Barquereno | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CD Guarnizo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | SD Torina Spain Tercera Group 3 |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 26/09 | Velarde Spain Tercera Group 3 |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 20/09 | UD Samano Spain Tercera Group 3 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | CD Cayon Spain Tercera Group 3 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 06/09 | CD Atletico Mineros Spain Tercera Group 3 |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Tropezon Spain Tercera Group 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | CD Bezana Spain Tercera Group 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 03/05 | SD Torina Spain Tercera Group 3 |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | CD Barquereno Spain Tercera Group 3 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Noja Spain Tercera Group 3 |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
CD Bezana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Vimenor Spain Tercera Group 3 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 27/09 | CD Barquereno Spain Tercera Group 3 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/09 | Naval Spain Tercera Group 3 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Escobedo Spain Tercera Group 3 |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 05/09 | At. Albericia Spain Tercera Group 3 |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | CD Guarnizo Spain Tercera Group 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 03/05 | CD Colindres Spain Tercera Group 3 |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Selaya Spain Tercera Group 3 |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 19/04 | Laredo Spain Tercera Group 3 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | At. Albericia Spain Tercera Group 3 |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CD Guarnizo vs CD Bezana?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Guarnizo win (43%). Probabilities: CD Guarnizo 43%, draw 29%, CD Bezana 28%.
How many goals are expected in CD Guarnizo vs CD Bezana?
The model expects 2.43 goals (CD Guarnizo 1.37 · CD Bezana 1.05), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in CD Guarnizo vs CD Bezana?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.