Football · Spain Tercera Group 3 · 10/10, 20:15

Prediction: At. Albericia vs Castro

Team pages: At. Albericia · Castro

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
At. Albericia1.69
Castro1.07
1X2
51% 26% 23%
At. Albericia Draw Castro
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
At. Albericia 1-2-7 (W-D-L)
WDLLLLLLLD
Castro 1-3-6 (W-D-L)
LLLDLDWDLL
Head-to-head
At. Albericia 5–1 Castro (6 last)
  • Castro0-2At. Albericia
  • At. Albericia2-0Castro
  • At. Albericia2-1Castro
  • Castro0-2At. Albericia
  • Castro2-1At. Albericia
  • At. Albericia3-0Castro
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · At. Albericia 1436 · Castro 1427
At. AlbericiaDrawCastro
Our model51%26%23%
Market51%26%23%
Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours At. Albericia: 5-0-1.
  • High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 12.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

At. AlbericiaCastro
Goals for / against (FT)1.3 / 2.30.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)0 / 0.50.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)0/50/50%13/38/50%
Corners (HT / FT)2 / 8.51.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)6.5 / 0.55.9 / 0.5

Head-to-head (H2H) · At. Albericia 5–0–1 Castro

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DateHomeScoreAway
15/02/26
Spain Tercera Group 3
Castro0-2
HT 0-0
At. Albericia
04/10/25
Spain Tercera Group 3
At. Albericia2-0Castro
15/02/25
Spain Tercera Group 3
At. Albericia2-1Castro
06/10/24
Spain Tercera Group 3
Castro0-2At. Albericia
28/03/24
Spain Tercera Group 3
Castro2-1
HT 1-0
At. Albericia
11/11/23
Spain Tercera Group 3
At. Albericia3-0Castro

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 3

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Tropezon 5500 11215
2 CD Bezana 5500 11315
3 Laredo 5401 12212
4 Vimenor 5311 7310
5 CD Cayon 5311 5210
6 SD Torina 5230 829
7 UD Samano 5221 1268
8 SD Revilla 5221 1068
9 Selaya 5212 577
10 CD Atletico Mineros 5203 4116
11 Castro 5122 465
12 Escobedo 5122 375
13 CD Guarnizo 5113 694
14 Solares 5113 364
15 Velarde 5113 384
16 At. Albericia 5014 391
17 Naval 5014 4131
18 CD Barquereno 5014 2111

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentAt. AlbericiaCastro
SD Revilla 2-2 D 2-2 D
Solares 0-2 L 2-0 W
Selaya 0-1 L 0-0 D
Record vs common 0 W 1 D 2 L 1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Castro (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

At. Albericia

WDLLLLLLLD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
03/10 SD Revilla
Spain Tercera Group 3
– 2-2 –– D
27/09 Solares
Spain Tercera Group 3
0-0 0-2 85 L
20/09 Selaya
Spain Tercera Group 3
0-1 0-1 99 L
12/09 Laredo
Spain Tercera Group 3
– 0-2 –– L
05/09 CD Bezana
Spain Tercera Group 3
– 1-2 –– L
09/05 Selaya
Spain Tercera Group 3
– 2-4 –– L
03/05 Escobedo
Spain Tercera Group 3
– 2-3 –– L
25/04 Laredo
Spain Tercera Group 3
– 1-3 –– L
18/04 Vimenor
Spain Tercera Group 3
– 2-2 –– D
11/04 CD Bezana
Spain Tercera Group 3
– 3-2 –– W

Castro

LLLDLDWDLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
04/10 Tropezon
Spain Tercera Group 3
0-1 0-2 15 L
27/09 CD Atletico Mineros
Spain Tercera Group 3
0-2 0-2 57 L
19/09 SD Revilla
Spain Tercera Group 3
2-0 2-2 37 D
13/09 Solares
Spain Tercera Group 3
– 2-0 –– W
06/09 Selaya
Spain Tercera Group 3
0-0 0-0 97 D
09/05 Tropezon
Spain Tercera Group 3
0-1 0-2 54 L
03/05 UC Cartes
Spain Tercera Group 3
0-0 0-0 18 D
26/04 Gimnastica de Torrelavega
Spain Tercera Group 3
1-1 2-3 37 L
18/04 SD Revilla
Spain Tercera Group 3
0-1 1-2 76 L
12/04 CD Guarnizo
Spain Tercera Group 3
– 0-1 –– L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in At. Albericia vs Castro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a At. Albericia win (51%). Probabilities: At. Albericia 51%, draw 26%, Castro 23%.

How many goals are expected in At. Albericia vs Castro?

The model expects 2.76 goals (At. Albericia 1.69 · Castro 1.07), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in At. Albericia vs Castro?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.