Football · Spain Tercera Group 3 · 25/10, 12:00

Prediction: Escobedo vs Tropezon

Team pages: Escobedo · Tropezon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Escobedo1.03

Tropezon1.27

1X2

30% 29% 42%

Escobedo Draw Tropezon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Escobedo 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWDDLLWDLL

Tropezon 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Escobedo 1–2–3 Tropezon (6 last)

Tropezon0-0Escobedo
Escobedo2-1Tropezon
Escobedo0-1Tropezon
Tropezon1-1Escobedo
Tropezon1-0Escobedo
Escobedo0-2Tropezon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Escobedo 1483 · Tropezon 1595

	Escobedo	Draw	Tropezon
Our model	29%	31%	41%
Market	30%	28%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tropezon (rating 1483 vs 1595).
H2H favours Tropezon: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Escobedo	Tropezon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	1.5 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.6 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/67/33%	57/43/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.30

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 05:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.00 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.29 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10.1% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:38 +10’	3.25	3.30	2.00
21:27 +7’	3.10▼	3.30	2.05▲
00:07 +5’	3.50▲	3.40▲	1.90▼
05:03 +5’	3.00▼	3.30▼	2.15▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:53 +175’	3.42	3.16	2.01
21:09 +25’	2.77▼	3.05▼	2.41▲
01:30 +39’	2.80▲	3.06▲	2.37▼
02:18 +48’	2.85▲	3.10▲	2.32▼
03:13 +52’	2.89▲	3.11▲	2.29▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Escobedo 1–2–3 Tropezon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 3	Tropezon	0-0 HT 0-0	Escobedo
14/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 3	Escobedo	2-1 HT 0-1	Tropezon
27/04/24 Spain Tercera Group 3	Escobedo	0-1 HT 0-0	Tropezon
17/12/23 Spain Tercera Group 3	Tropezon	1-1 HT 0-0	Escobedo
07/05/23 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs	Tropezon	1-0 HT 0-0	Escobedo
29/04/23 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs	Escobedo	0-2 HT 0-2	Tropezon

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tropezon	7	6	1	0	13	3	19
2	Laredo	7	6	0	1	18	4	18
3	CD Bezana	7	5	1	1	12	6	16
4	SD Revilla	7	4	2	1	16	10	14
5	CD Cayon	7	4	2	1	7	2	14
6	Vimenor	7	4	1	2	9	6	13
7	UD Samano	7	3	3	1	15	7	12
8	SD Torina	7	2	5	0	9	3	11
9	CD Atletico Mineros	7	3	0	4	9	15	9
10	Castro	7	2	2	3	9	10	8
11	Selaya	7	2	1	4	6	10	7
12	Solares	7	1	3	3	7	10	6
13	At. Albericia	7	1	2	4	7	11	5
14	CD Guarnizo	7	1	2	4	9	14	5
15	CD Barquereno	7	1	2	4	5	13	5
15	Escobedo	7	1	2	4	5	13	5
17	Velarde	7	1	1	5	5	14	4
18	Naval	7	0	2	5	8	18	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Escobedo	Tropezon
Castro	0-3 L	2-0 W
SD Revilla	2-3 L	2-0 W
Solares	0-0 D	2-1 W
Selaya	2-1 W	3-0 W
Laredo	0-2 L	2-1 W
At. Albericia	3-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Tropezon (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Escobedo

WWDDLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Castro Spain Tercera Group 3	–	0-3	–	–	L
10/10	SD Revilla Spain Tercera Group 3	–	2-3	–	–	L
03/10	Solares Spain Tercera Group 3	–	0-0	–	–	D
26/09	Selaya Spain Tercera Group 3	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
20/09	Laredo Spain Tercera Group 3	0-2	0-2	3	7	L
12/09	CD Bezana Spain Tercera Group 3	–	0-3	–	–	L
05/09	SD Torina Spain Tercera Group 3	–	1-1	–	–	D
17/05	Laredo Spain Tercera Group 3	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
09/05	Montanas del Pas Spain Tercera Group 3	–	7-3	–	–	W
03/05	At. Albericia Spain Tercera Group 3	–	3-2	–	–	W

Tropezon

WDDWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	At. Albericia Spain Tercera Group 3	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
10/10	CD Atletico Mineros Spain Tercera Group 3	–	2-1	–	–	W
04/10	Castro Spain Tercera Group 3	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
27/09	SD Revilla Spain Tercera Group 3	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
19/09	Solares Spain Tercera Group 3	–	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	Selaya Spain Tercera Group 3	1-0	3-0	3	1	W
06/09	Laredo Spain Tercera Group 3	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
31/05	Laredo Spain Tercera Group 3	–	0-0	–	–	D
17/05	CD Guarnizo Spain Tercera Group 3	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
09/05	Castro Spain Tercera Group 3	1-0	2-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Escobedo vs Tropezon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tropezon win (42%). Probabilities: Escobedo 30%, draw 29%, Tropezon 42%.

How many goals are expected in Escobedo vs Tropezon?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Escobedo 1.03 · Tropezon 1.27), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Escobedo vs Tropezon?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.