Football · Italy Serie D · 11/10, 15:00

Prediction: ASD CastrumFavara vs Igea Virtus

Team pages: ASD CastrumFavara · Igea Virtus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

ASD CastrumFavara1.27

Igea Virtus1.7

1X2

27% 27% 46%

ASD CastrumFavara Draw Igea Virtus

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

ASD CastrumFavara 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLDLLL

Igea Virtus 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLWDWWLD

Head-to-head

ASD CastrumFavara 1–3–1 Igea Virtus (5 last)

Igea Virtus3-2ASD CastrumFavara
ASD CastrumFavara0-0Igea Virtus
ASD CastrumFavara3-1Igea Virtus
ASD CastrumFavara1-1Igea Virtus
Igea Virtus2-2ASD CastrumFavara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ASD CastrumFavara 1473 · Igea Virtus 1554

	ASD CastrumFavara	Draw	Igea Virtus
Our model	28%	26%	46%
Market	27%	27%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Igea Virtus (rating 1473 vs 1554).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ASD CastrumFavara	Igea Virtus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 4.6	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.4	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.30

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
08:20 +2’	3.30	3.30	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ASD CastrumFavara 1–3–1 Igea Virtus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Italy Serie D	Igea Virtus	3-2	ASD CastrumFavara
16/11/25 Italy Serie D	ASD CastrumFavara	0-0 HT 0-0	Igea Virtus
08/10/25 Italy Serie D Cup	ASD CastrumFavara	3-1	Igea Virtus
06/04/25 Italy Serie D	ASD CastrumFavara	1-1	Igea Virtus
24/11/24 Italy Serie D	Igea Virtus	2-2	ASD CastrumFavara

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	6	5	0	1	15	1	15
2	Vibonese	6	4	1	1	15	5	13
3	Sambiase	6	4	1	1	10	5	13
4	Calcio Avola 1949	6	4	0	2	9	10	12
5	Igea Virtus	6	3	2	1	14	11	11
6	ASD Licata	6	3	2	1	8	8	11
7	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	6	2	3	1	8	4	9
8	Milazzo	6	3	0	3	5	8	9
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
10	Nissa FC	6	2	2	2	9	9	8
11	Modica	6	2	1	3	6	5	7
12	Vigor Lamezia	6	1	2	3	7	13	5
13	Siracusa	6	3	2	1	8	5	4
14	Città di Gela	6	1	2	3	4	6	4
15	ASD CastrumFavara	6	1	1	4	5	7	4
16	ASD Ragusa	6	0	2	4	4	9	2
17	Trapani	6	2	0	4	3	10	1
18	Enna Calcio	6	0	1	5	0	15	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ASD CastrumFavara	Igea Virtus
Vigor Lamezia	0-2 L	2-2 D
Calcio Avola 1949	0-1 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Igea Virtus (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ASD CastrumFavara

WWWDWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Vigor Lamezia Italy Serie D	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
27/09	Calcio Avola 1949 Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
20/09	Modica Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/09	ASD Licata Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	Città di Gela Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
06/09	Milazzo Italy Serie D	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
03/05	Enna Calcio Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
26/04	ASD Paterno Italy Serie D	–	3-1	–	–	W
19/04	Città di Gela Italy Serie D	2-0	3-1	7	0	W
12/04	SSD Athletic Club Palermo Italy Serie D	2-0	3-0	3	5	W

Igea Virtus

LWDLWDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Nissa FC Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
27/09	Reggina Italy Serie D	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
20/09	Trapani Italy Serie D	–	3-1	–	–	W
16/09	Vibonese Italy Serie D	1-1	4-3	3	5	W
12/09	Vigor Lamezia Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/09	Calcio Avola 1949 Italy Serie D	–	4-2	–	–	W
03/05	Vigor Lamezia Italy Serie D	0-1	1-4	4	0	L
26/04	ACR Messina Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/04	Vibonese Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
19/04	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie D	–	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ASD CastrumFavara vs Igea Virtus?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Igea Virtus win (46%). Probabilities: ASD CastrumFavara 27%, draw 27%, Igea Virtus 46%.

How many goals are expected in ASD CastrumFavara vs Igea Virtus?

The model expects 2.97 goals (ASD CastrumFavara 1.27 · Igea Virtus 1.7), with a 59% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in ASD CastrumFavara vs Igea Virtus?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.