Football · Italy Serie D · 11/10, 15:00

Prediction: Prato vs San Donato Tavarnelle

Team pages: Prato · San Donato Tavarnelle

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Prato1.42

San Donato Tavarnelle0.64

1X2

56% 27% 17%

Prato Draw San Donato Tavarnelle

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Prato 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWDWWD

San Donato Tavarnelle 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWDLLD

Head-to-head

Prato 3–1–1 San Donato Tavarnelle (5 last)

Prato0-0San Donato Tavarnelle
Prato1-0San Donato Tavarnelle
San Donato Tavarnelle0-2Prato
Prato1-0San Donato Tavarnelle
San Donato Tavarnelle1-0Prato

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Prato 1595 · San Donato Tavarnelle 1494

	Prato	Draw	San Donato Tavarnelle
Our model	55%	30%	16%
Market	57%	25%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Prato (rating 1595 vs 1494).
H2H favours Prato: 3-1-1.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Prato	San Donato Tavarnelle
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 7.1	1.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
03:21 +7’	1.57	3.60	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Prato 3–1–1 San Donato Tavarnelle

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Italy Serie D Cup	Prato	0-0 HT 0-0	San Donato Tavarnelle
22/03/26 Italy Serie D	Prato	1-0 HT 0-0	San Donato Tavarnelle
09/11/25 Italy Serie D	San Donato Tavarnelle	0-2 HT 0-1	Prato
12/01/19 Italy Serie D	Prato	1-0 HT 1-0	San Donato Tavarnelle
23/09/18 Italy Serie D	San Donato Tavarnelle	1-0	Prato

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	6	5	0	1	15	1	15
2	Vibonese	6	4	1	1	15	5	13
3	Sambiase	6	4	1	1	10	5	13
4	Calcio Avola 1949	6	4	0	2	9	10	12
5	Igea Virtus	6	3	2	1	14	11	11
6	ASD Licata	6	3	2	1	8	8	11
7	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	6	2	3	1	8	4	9
8	Milazzo	6	3	0	3	5	8	9
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
10	Nissa FC	6	2	2	2	9	9	8
11	Modica	6	2	1	3	6	5	7
12	Vigor Lamezia	6	1	2	3	7	13	5
13	Siracusa	6	3	2	1	8	5	4
14	Città di Gela	6	1	2	3	4	6	4
15	ASD CastrumFavara	6	1	1	4	5	7	4
16	ASD Ragusa	6	0	2	4	4	9	2
17	Trapani	6	2	0	4	3	10	1
18	Enna Calcio	6	0	1	5	0	15	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Prato	San Donato Tavarnelle
ASD Terranuova Traiana	1-1 D	1-1 D
GSD Ghiviborgo VDS	2-1 W	1-0 W
ASD Sasso Marconi	1-0 W	3-1 W
ASD Seravezza Calcio	1-2 L	2-1 W
Grosseto	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: San Donato Tavarnelle (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Prato

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	GSD Ghiviborgo VDS Italy Serie D	0-0	2-1	20	6	W
20/09	ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
16/09	ASD Grassina Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
13/09	ASD Rondinella Marzocco Italy Serie D	2-0	3-1	2	8	W
06/09	Nuova Ternana Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
17/05	ASD Seravezza Calcio Italy Serie D	0-2	1-2	5	7	L
03/05	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
26/04	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
19/04	Grosseto Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	4	1	W

San Donato Tavarnelle

WWWDWWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Mezzolara Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
27/09	Virtus Flaminia Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
20/09	Gavorrano Italy Serie D	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
16/09	ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D	1-0	3-1	4	6	W
06/09	ASD Seravezza Calcio Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
03/05	ASD Seravezza Calcio Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	Grosseto Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
19/04	Foligno Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
12/04	GSD Ghiviborgo VDS Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Prato vs San Donato Tavarnelle?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Prato win (56%). Probabilities: Prato 56%, draw 27%, San Donato Tavarnelle 17%.

How many goals are expected in Prato vs San Donato Tavarnelle?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Prato 1.42 · San Donato Tavarnelle 0.64), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Prato vs San Donato Tavarnelle?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.