Football · Georgia Liga 3 · 13/08, 15:00

Prediction: FC Merani Tbilisi vs Guria Lanchkhuti

Team pages: FC Merani Tbilisi · Guria Lanchkhuti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

FC Merani Tbilisi1.16

Guria Lanchkhuti1.68

1X2

25% 26% 49%

FC Merani Tbilisi Draw Guria Lanchkhuti

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Merani Tbilisi 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDWLWDLD

Guria Lanchkhuti 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Merani Tbilisi 3–1–2 Guria Lanchkhuti (6 last)

Guria Lanchkhuti6-1FC Merani Tbilisi
FC Merani Tbilisi2-0Guria Lanchkhuti
FC Merani Tbilisi2-3Guria Lanchkhuti
Guria Lanchkhuti0-0FC Merani Tbilisi
FC Merani Tbilisi6-2Guria Lanchkhuti
Guria Lanchkhuti2-4FC Merani Tbilisi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Merani Tbilisi 1516 · Guria Lanchkhuti 1545

	FC Merani Tbilisi	Draw	Guria Lanchkhuti
Our model	25%	26%	48%
Market	26%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Merani Tbilisi: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Merani Tbilisi	Guria Lanchkhuti
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	2.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	56/44/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.9	3.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.50

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:15 +4’	3.50	3.50	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Merani Tbilisi 3–1–2 Guria Lanchkhuti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Georgia Cup	Guria Lanchkhuti	6-1 HT 5-0	FC Merani Tbilisi
24/10/24 Georgia Liga 3	FC Merani Tbilisi	2-0 HT 1-0	Guria Lanchkhuti
27/02/20 Europe Friendlies	FC Merani Tbilisi	2-3 HT 0-1	Guria Lanchkhuti
28/10/19 Georgia First League	Guria Lanchkhuti	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Merani Tbilisi
24/08/19 Georgia First League	FC Merani Tbilisi	6-2 HT 4-0	Guria Lanchkhuti
31/05/19 Georgia First League	Guria Lanchkhuti	2-4 HT 1-1	FC Merani Tbilisi

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Merani Tbilisi	Guria Lanchkhuti
FC Didube 2014	2-2 D	2-1 W
FC Orbi	1-1 D	2-1 W
Wit Georgia	1-0 W	0-1 L
Lokomotiv Tbilisi	1-0 W	0-1 L
FC Iberia 2010	2-0 W	6-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Guria Lanchkhuti (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Merani Tbilisi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	FC Didube 2014 Georgia Liga 3	1-1	2-2	3	7	D
26/06	Guria Lanchkhuti Georgia Cup	0-5	1-6	1	2	L
21/06	FC Orbi Georgia Liga 3	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
14/06	Wit Georgia Georgia Liga 3	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
28/05	FC Tbilisi 2025 Georgia Liga 3	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
21/05	Dinamo Tbilisi II Georgia Liga 3	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
14/05	FC Gonio Georgia Liga 3	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
07/05	FC Iberia 1999 II Georgia Liga 3	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
03/05	Lokomotiv Tbilisi Georgia Liga 3	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
24/04	FC Iberia 2010 Georgia Liga 3	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

Guria Lanchkhuti

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Lokomotiv Tbilisi Georgia Liga 3	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
02/08	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia Cup	1-0	1-2	6	7	L
26/07	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Cup	–	1-0	–	–	W
26/06	FC Merani Tbilisi Georgia Cup	5-0	6-1	4	2	W
21/06	FC Didube 2014 Georgia Liga 3	0-0	2-1	6	8	W
15/06	Iveria Khashuri Georgia Liga 3	1-1	5-2	7	3	W
28/05	FC Orbi Georgia Liga 3	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
20/05	FC Iberia 2010 Georgia Liga 3	4-0	6-0	6	2	W
15/05	Wit Georgia Georgia Liga 3	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
07/05	Kolkheti Georgia Liga 3	2-0	5-0	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Merani Tbilisi vs Guria Lanchkhuti?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Guria Lanchkhuti win (49%). Probabilities: FC Merani Tbilisi 25%, draw 26%, Guria Lanchkhuti 49%.

How many goals are expected in FC Merani Tbilisi vs Guria Lanchkhuti?

The model expects 2.84 goals (FC Merani Tbilisi 1.16 · Guria Lanchkhuti 1.68), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Merani Tbilisi vs Guria Lanchkhuti?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.