Football · Spain Tercera Group 6 · 04/10, 18:00

Prediction: Ontinyent vs Villarreal C

Team pages: Ontinyent · Villarreal C

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Ontinyent1.07

Villarreal C1.19

1X2

32% 30% 38%

Ontinyent Draw Villarreal C

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Ontinyent 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLWLW

Villarreal C 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWWL

Head-to-head

Ontinyent 1–1–4 Villarreal C (6 last)

Ontinyent0-2Villarreal C
Villarreal C0-1Ontinyent
Villarreal C3-0Ontinyent
Ontinyent0-0Villarreal C
Villarreal C2-1Ontinyent
Ontinyent1-2Villarreal C

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ontinyent 1475 · Villarreal C 1587

	Ontinyent	Draw	Villarreal C
Our model	32%	31%	37%
Market	33%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villarreal C (rating 1475 vs 1587).
H2H favours Villarreal C: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 12.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ontinyent	Villarreal C
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.3	1.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/17/67%	44/44/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.7	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.5 / 0.5	6.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.10

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:29 +5’	2.75	3.10	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ontinyent 1–1–4 Villarreal C

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 6	Ontinyent	0-2 HT 0-1	Villarreal C
22/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 6	Villarreal C	0-1	Ontinyent
09/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 6	Villarreal C	3-0 HT 1-0	Ontinyent
27/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 6	Ontinyent	0-0 HT 0-0	Villarreal C
14/04/24 Spain Tercera Group 6	Villarreal C	2-1	Ontinyent
26/11/23 Spain Tercera Group 6	Ontinyent	1-2 HT 1-0	Villarreal C

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UD Vall De Uxo	4	3	1	0	7	1	10
2	Villarreal C	4	3	0	1	6	3	9
3	Eldense B	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
4	Torrent C.F.	4	2	1	1	8	5	7
5	Levante B	4	2	1	1	5	2	7
6	Crevillente	4	1	3	0	6	5	6
7	Ontinyent	4	2	0	2	5	4	6
8	SC Torrevieja CF	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
9	Hercules II	4	1	2	1	7	6	5
10	Acero	4	1	2	1	4	3	5
11	CD Roda	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
12	CD Bunol	4	1	2	1	3	5	5
13	Atletico Saguntino	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
14	Soneja	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
15	Atzeneta	4	0	3	1	3	4	3
16	Utiel	4	0	3	1	2	4	3
17	Jove Espanol	4	0	2	2	4	9	2
18	Athletic Torrellano	4	0	0	4	2	9	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ontinyent	Villarreal C
Levante B	0-2 L	0-2 L
Atletico Saguntino	1-0 W	1-0 W
CD Roda	1-2 L	2-1 W
Atzeneta	1-2 L	2-0 W
Hercules II	0-1 L	4-0 W
UD Castellonense	3-2 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Villarreal C (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ontinyent

LLWLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	CD Bunol Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
20/09	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	0-2	2	9	L
13/09	Atletico Saguntino Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-0	1	9	W
06/09	CD Roda Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	1-2	4	8	L
09/05	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	0-1	0	3	L
02/05	Atzeneta Spain Tercera Group 6	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/04	Hercules II Spain Tercera Group 6	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/04	UD Castellonense Spain Tercera Group 6	–	3-2	–	–	W
12/04	Atletico Saguntino Spain Tercera Group 6	–	0-1	–	–	L
02/04	Villarreal C Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	0-2	4	9	L

Villarreal C

WWWWWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
20/09	Atletico Saguntino Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-0	3	12	W
13/09	CD Roda Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
06/09	Soneja Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	3-0	1	11	W
17/05	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	1-3	6	7	L
09/05	Athletic Torrellano Spain Tercera Group 6	–	2-0	–	–	W
02/05	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
26/04	Atzeneta Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
18/04	Hercules II Spain Tercera Group 6	3-0	4-0	6	2	W
12/04	UD Castellonense Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	3-0	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ontinyent vs Villarreal C?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Villarreal C win (38%). Probabilities: Ontinyent 32%, draw 30%, Villarreal C 38%.

How many goals are expected in Ontinyent vs Villarreal C?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Ontinyent 1.07 · Villarreal C 1.19), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Ontinyent vs Villarreal C?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.