Football · Spain Tercera Group 6 · 04/10, 18:00

Prediction: Atletico Saguntino vs Utiel

Team pages: Atletico Saguntino · Utiel

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Atletico Saguntino1.56

Utiel0.87

1X2

53% 28% 20%

Atletico Saguntino Draw Utiel

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Saguntino 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWLLD

Utiel 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDDWDDLD

Head-to-head

Atletico Saguntino 2–1–1 Utiel (4 last)

Utiel1-3Atletico Saguntino
Atletico Saguntino2-0Utiel
Atletico Saguntino1-2Utiel
Utiel1-1Atletico Saguntino

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Saguntino 1536 · Utiel 1445

	Atletico Saguntino	Draw	Utiel
Our model	52%	28%	20%
Market	53%	28%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Saguntino (rating 1536 vs 1445).
H2H favours Atletico Saguntino: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Saguntino	Utiel
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/44/0%	13/75/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.9	3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.7 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.25

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:29 +5’	1.70	3.25	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Saguntino 2–1–1 Utiel

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 6	Utiel	1-3	Atletico Saguntino
07/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 6	Atletico Saguntino	2-0 HT 1-0	Utiel
04/05/25 Spain Tercera Group 6	Atletico Saguntino	1-2 HT 0-1	Utiel
22/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 6	Utiel	1-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Saguntino

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UD Vall De Uxo	4	3	1	0	7	1	10
2	Villarreal C	4	3	0	1	6	3	9
3	Eldense B	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
4	Torrent C.F.	4	2	1	1	8	5	7
5	Levante B	4	2	1	1	5	2	7
6	Crevillente	4	1	3	0	6	5	6
7	Ontinyent	4	2	0	2	5	4	6
8	SC Torrevieja CF	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
9	Hercules II	4	1	2	1	7	6	5
10	Acero	4	1	2	1	4	3	5
11	CD Roda	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
12	CD Bunol	4	1	2	1	3	5	5
13	Atletico Saguntino	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
14	Soneja	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
15	Atzeneta	4	0	3	1	3	4	3
16	Utiel	4	0	3	1	2	4	3
17	Jove Espanol	4	0	2	2	4	9	2
18	Athletic Torrellano	4	0	0	4	2	9	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Saguntino	Utiel
UD Vall De Uxo	4-0 W	0-0 D
UD Alzira	1-0 W	2-2 D
Jove Espanol	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Saguntino (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Saguntino

WWWDWWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Crevillente Spain Tercera Group 6	2-0	2-2	4	3	D
20/09	Villarreal C Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-1	4	12	L
13/09	Ontinyent Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
06/09	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	2-0	2-1	1	7	W
09/05	Hercules II Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
02/05	UD Vall De Uxo Spain Tercera Group 6	2-0	4-0	1	6	W
26/04	UD Castellonense Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
19/04	UD Alzira Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
12/04	Ontinyent Spain Tercera Group 6	–	1-0	–	–	W
05/04	Jove Espanol Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	2-1	4	9	W

Utiel

LDLDDWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	CD Roda Spain Tercera Group 6	1-1	1-1	10	1	D
20/09	Soneja Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	0-2	6	8	L
12/09	Acero Spain Tercera Group 6	–	1-1	3	5	D
06/09	UD Vall De Uxo Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
09/05	UD Vall De Uxo Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
02/05	UD Alzira Spain Tercera Group 6	–	2-2	–	–	D
26/04	Jove Espanol Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
18/04	CD Roda Spain Tercera Group 6	1-1	1-3	10	3	L
11/04	Recambios Colon Spain Tercera Group 6	2-2	2-2	7	5	D
04/04	Athletic Torrellano Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-1	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Saguntino vs Utiel?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Saguntino win (53%). Probabilities: Atletico Saguntino 53%, draw 28%, Utiel 20%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Saguntino vs Utiel?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Atletico Saguntino 1.56 · Utiel 0.87), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Saguntino vs Utiel?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.