Football · Spain Tercera Group 6 · 25/10, 17:30

Prediction: Utiel vs Villarreal C

Team pages: Utiel · Villarreal C

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Utiel0.9

Villarreal C1.72

1X2

19% 25% 56%

Utiel Draw Villarreal C

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Utiel 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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Villarreal C 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Utiel 2–4 Villarreal C (6 last)

Villarreal C3-1Utiel
Utiel0-2Villarreal C
Utiel1-0Villarreal C
Villarreal C1-0Utiel
Villarreal C3-1Utiel
Utiel1-0Villarreal C

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Utiel 1432 · Villarreal C 1588

	Utiel	Draw	Villarreal C
Our model	18%	26%	56%
Market	19%	25%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villarreal C (rating 1432 vs 1588).
H2H favours Villarreal C: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Utiel	Villarreal C
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	1.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/50/38%	33/56/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.6	2.2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	7.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.60

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.69 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:55 +10’	4.75	3.60	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:42 +23’	4.39	3.47	1.69

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Utiel 2–0–4 Villarreal C

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 6	Villarreal C	3-1 HT 1-0	Utiel
12/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 6	Utiel	0-2 HT 0-1	Villarreal C
09/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 6	Utiel	1-0 HT 0-0	Villarreal C
28/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 6	Villarreal C	1-0	Utiel
17/03/24 Spain Tercera Group 6	Villarreal C	3-1	Utiel
29/10/23 Spain Tercera Group 6	Utiel	1-0 HT 1-0	Villarreal C

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Villarreal C	7	6	0	1	12	5	18
2	Levante B	8	5	2	1	14	3	17
3	UD Vall De Uxo	6	3	3	0	8	2	12
4	Hercules II	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
5	Eldense B	8	2	4	2	8	7	10
6	Crevillente	7	2	4	1	9	8	10
7	Torrent C.F.	6	3	1	2	9	6	10
8	CD Roda	7	2	3	2	9	8	9
9	Acero	7	1	5	1	7	6	8
10	Atzeneta	7	1	5	1	7	7	8
11	Atletico Saguntino	6	2	2	2	9	9	8
12	SC Torrevieja CF	7	2	1	4	7	13	7
13	Soneja	7	2	1	4	8	13	7
14	Ontinyent	6	2	0	4	8	9	6
15	Jove Espanol	7	1	3	3	7	13	6
16	CD Bunol	6	1	2	3	4	9	5
17	Athletic Torrellano	6	1	1	4	5	10	4
18	Utiel	6	0	3	3	4	10	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Utiel	Villarreal C
Levante B	0-3 L	0-2 L
Atletico Saguntino	2-3 L	1-0 W
CD Roda	1-1 D	2-1 W
Soneja	0-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Villarreal C (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Utiel

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	0-3	7	6	L
04/10	Atletico Saguntino Spain Tercera Group 6	1-2	2-3	8	6	L
27/09	CD Roda Spain Tercera Group 6	1-1	1-1	10	1	D
20/09	Soneja Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	0-2	6	8	L
12/09	Acero Spain Tercera Group 6	–	1-1	3	5	D
06/09	UD Vall De Uxo Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
09/05	UD Vall De Uxo Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
02/05	UD Alzira Spain Tercera Group 6	–	2-2	–	–	D
26/04	Jove Espanol Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
18/04	CD Roda Spain Tercera Group 6	1-1	1-3	10	3	L

Villarreal C

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Crevillente Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
09/10	CD Bunol Spain Tercera Group 6	3-0	3-1	4	7	W
04/10	Ontinyent Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
26/09	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
20/09	Atletico Saguntino Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-0	3	12	W
13/09	CD Roda Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
06/09	Soneja Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	3-0	1	11	W
17/05	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	1-3	6	7	L
09/05	Athletic Torrellano Spain Tercera Group 6	–	2-0	–	–	W
02/05	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Utiel vs Villarreal C?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Villarreal C win (56%). Probabilities: Utiel 19%, draw 25%, Villarreal C 56%.

How many goals are expected in Utiel vs Villarreal C?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Utiel 0.9 · Villarreal C 1.72), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Utiel vs Villarreal C?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.