Football · Spain Tercera Group 6 · 25/10, 11:30

Prediction: Athletic Torrellano vs Atletico Saguntino

Team pages: Athletic Torrellano · Atletico Saguntino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Athletic Torrellano1.19

Atletico Saguntino1.49

1X2

29% 28% 43%

Athletic Torrellano Draw Atletico Saguntino

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletic Torrellano 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLLDW

Atletico Saguntino 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLLDWD

Head-to-head

Athletic Torrellano 2–3–1 Atletico Saguntino (6 last)

Atletico Saguntino2-1Athletic Torrellano
Athletic Torrellano2-0Atletico Saguntino
Athletic Torrellano2-1Atletico Saguntino
Atletico Saguntino0-0Athletic Torrellano
Athletic Torrellano1-1Atletico Saguntino
Atletico Saguntino1-1Athletic Torrellano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletic Torrellano 1451 · Atletico Saguntino 1536

	Athletic Torrellano	Draw	Atletico Saguntino
Our model	29%	28%	43%
Market	29%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Saguntino (rating 1451 vs 1536).
H2H favours Athletic Torrellano: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletic Torrellano	Atletico Saguntino
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/38/50%	67/33/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	1.3 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	6.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.20

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.28 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.20 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:22 +12’	2.88	3.20	2.20
03:50 +14’	3.10▲	3.20	2.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:18 +76’	3.28	3.09	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Torrellano 2–3–1 Atletico Saguntino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 6	Atletico Saguntino	2-1 HT 1-1	Athletic Torrellano
12/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 6	Athletic Torrellano	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Saguntino
11/05/25 Spain Tercera Group 6	Athletic Torrellano	2-1	Atletico Saguntino
11/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 6	Atletico Saguntino	0-0 HT 0-0	Athletic Torrellano
15/01/22 Spain Tercera Group 6	Athletic Torrellano	1-1 HT 1-0	Atletico Saguntino
18/09/21 Spain Tercera Group 6	Atletico Saguntino	1-1 HT 1-1	Athletic Torrellano

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Villarreal C	7	6	0	1	12	5	18
2	Levante B	8	5	2	1	14	3	17
3	UD Vall De Uxo	6	3	3	0	8	2	12
4	Hercules II	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
5	Eldense B	8	2	4	2	8	7	10
6	Crevillente	7	2	4	1	9	8	10
7	Torrent C.F.	6	3	1	2	9	6	10
8	CD Roda	7	2	3	2	9	8	9
9	Acero	7	1	5	1	7	6	8
10	Atzeneta	7	1	5	1	7	7	8
11	Atletico Saguntino	6	2	2	2	9	9	8
12	SC Torrevieja CF	7	2	1	4	7	13	7
13	Soneja	7	2	1	4	8	13	7
14	Ontinyent	6	2	0	4	8	9	6
15	Jove Espanol	7	1	3	3	7	13	6
16	CD Bunol	6	1	2	3	4	9	5
17	Athletic Torrellano	6	1	1	4	5	10	4
18	Utiel	6	0	3	3	4	10	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletic Torrellano	Atletico Saguntino
UD Vall De Uxo	0-3 L	4-0 W
Hercules II	1-3 L	3-0 W
Villarreal C	0-2 L	0-1 L
Crevillente	4-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Saguntino (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletic Torrellano

LWLLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Soneja Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
03/10	Acero Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-1	4	9	D
27/09	UD Vall De Uxo Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
19/09	Hercules II Spain Tercera Group 6	1-2	1-3	5	4	L
13/09	Torrent C.F. Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
06/09	Eldense B Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
09/05	Villarreal C Spain Tercera Group 6	–	0-2	–	–	L
02/05	La Nucia Spain Tercera Group 6	–	0-3	–	–	L
26/04	Crevillente Spain Tercera Group 6	1-1	4-2	2	6	W
19/04	Soneja Spain Tercera Group 6	0-1	0-1	8	4	L

Atletico Saguntino

WDWWWLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	SC Torrevieja CF Spain Tercera Group 6	–	2-2	–	–	D
04/10	Utiel Spain Tercera Group 6	2-1	3-2	4	6	W
27/09	Crevillente Spain Tercera Group 6	2-0	2-2	4	3	D
20/09	Villarreal C Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-1	4	12	L
13/09	Ontinyent Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
06/09	Levante B Spain Tercera Group 6	2-0	2-1	1	7	W
09/05	Hercules II Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
02/05	UD Vall De Uxo Spain Tercera Group 6	2-0	4-0	1	6	W
26/04	UD Castellonense Spain Tercera Group 6	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
19/04	UD Alzira Spain Tercera Group 6	1-0	1-0	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletic Torrellano vs Atletico Saguntino?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Saguntino win (43%). Probabilities: Athletic Torrellano 29%, draw 28%, Atletico Saguntino 43%.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Torrellano vs Atletico Saguntino?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Athletic Torrellano 1.19 · Atletico Saguntino 1.49), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletic Torrellano vs Atletico Saguntino?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.