Football · Argentina Torneo A · 12/08, 20:00
Prediction: Germinal de Rawson vs Santamarina Tandil
Team pages: Germinal de Rawson · Santamarina Tandil
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.72Total
Germinal de Rawson1.2
Santamarina Tandil0.52
1X2
Germinal de Rawson
Draw
Santamarina Tandil
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 56%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Germinal de Rawson
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Santamarina Tandil
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Germinal de Rawson
2–2–2
Santamarina Tandil
(6 last)
- Germinal de Rawson1-0Santamarina Tandil
- Santamarina Tandil0-0Germinal de Rawson
- Santamarina Tandil0-2Germinal de Rawson
- Santamarina Tandil1-0Germinal de Rawson
- Germinal de Rawson1-1Santamarina Tandil
- Santamarina Tandil2-1Germinal de Rawson
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Germinal de Rawson 1492 · Santamarina Tandil 1407
| Germinal de Rawson | Draw | Santamarina Tandil | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 33% | 15% |
| Market | 54% | 29% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.72 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Germinal de Rawson (rating 1492 vs 1407).
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Germinal de Rawson | Santamarina Tandil | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.1 | 0.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 0/70/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 4.2 | 1.3 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.3 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Germinal de Rawson 2–2–2 Santamarina Tandil
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/26 Argentina Torneo A | Germinal de Rawson | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Santamarina Tandil |
| 25/04/26 Argentina Torneo A | Santamarina Tandil | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Germinal de Rawson |
| 30/08/25 Argentina Torneo A | Santamarina Tandil | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Germinal de Rawson |
| 14/06/25 Argentina Torneo A | Santamarina Tandil | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Germinal de Rawson |
| 13/04/25 Argentina Torneo A | Germinal de Rawson | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Santamarina Tandil |
| 21/07/24 Argentina Torneo A | Santamarina Tandil | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Germinal de Rawson |
Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Relegation round, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Rincon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | San Martin de Mendoza | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Germinal de Rawson | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Juventud Unida Universitario | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Club Circulo Deportivo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | FADEP Mendoza | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sol de Mayo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 8 | CA Costa Brava | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 9 | Santamarina Tandil | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 | Guillermo Brown | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Germinal de Rawson | Santamarina Tandil |
|---|---|---|
| Guillermo Brown | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Olimpo B Blanca | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| CA Alvarado | 0-5 L | 0-0 D |
| Club Villa Mitre | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Club Circulo Deportivo | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Kimberley Mar del Plata | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Sol de Mayo | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 4 L | 1 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Germinal de Rawson (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Germinal de Rawson
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | CA Costa Brava Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 02/08 | Juventud Unida Universitario Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | Guillermo Brown Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 12/07 | Olimpo B Blanca Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 05/07 | CA Alvarado Argentina Torneo A |
0-4 | 0-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 28/06 | Santamarina Tandil Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Club Villa Mitre Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 07/06 | Club Circulo Deportivo Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Kimberley Mar del Plata Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Sol de Mayo Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Santamarina Tandil
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | San Martin de Mendoza Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 02/08 | Sol de Mayo Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Olimpo B Blanca Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 11/07 | CA Alvarado Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 28/06 | Germinal de Rawson Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Club Villa Mitre Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Club Circulo Deportivo Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 07/06 | Kimberley Mar del Plata Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Sol de Mayo Argentina Torneo A |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Guillermo Brown Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Germinal de Rawson vs Santamarina Tandil?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Germinal de Rawson win (53%). Probabilities: Germinal de Rawson 53%, draw 31%, Santamarina Tandil 16%.
How many goals are expected in Germinal de Rawson vs Santamarina Tandil?
The model expects 1.72 goals (Germinal de Rawson 1.2 · Santamarina Tandil 0.52), with a 51% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Germinal de Rawson vs Santamarina Tandil?
The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.