Football · England Premier League 2 · 21/08, 20:00

Prediction: Aston Villa U21 vs Brighton U21

Team pages: Aston Villa U21 · Brighton U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Aston Villa U211.4

Brighton U211.64

1X2

33% 24% 43%

Aston Villa U21 Draw Brighton U21

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Aston Villa U21 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Brighton U21 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Aston Villa U21 1–4–1 Brighton U21 (6 last)

Brighton U210-0Aston Villa U21
Brighton U211-1Aston Villa U21
Aston Villa U214-0Brighton U21
Brighton U212-1Aston Villa U21
Brighton U212-2Aston Villa U21
Brighton U211-1Aston Villa U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aston Villa U21 1519 · Brighton U21 1583

	Aston Villa U21	Draw	Brighton U21
Our model	32%	26%	42%
Market	33%	23%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brighton U21 (rating 1519 vs 1583).
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aston Villa U21	Brighton U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	2.4 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.6	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.90

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.22
2	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.26 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:16 +3’	2.70	3.90	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:18 +1’	2.36	4.22	2.32
18:25 +3’	2.43▲	4.22	2.26▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aston Villa U21 1–4–1 Brighton U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 England Premier League 2	Brighton U21	0-0 HT 0-0	Aston Villa U21
23/02/25 England Premier League 2	Brighton U21	1-1 HT 1-0	Aston Villa U21
08/12/23 England U21 Premier League Cup	Aston Villa U21	4-0 HT 3-0	Brighton U21
03/11/23 England Premier League 2	Brighton U21	2-1 HT 2-0	Aston Villa U21
15/09/23 England U21 Premier League Cup	Brighton U21	2-2 HT 0-0	Aston Villa U21
22/08/16 England Premier League 2	Brighton U21	1-1	Aston Villa U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arsenal U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aston Villa U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Birmingham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Blackburn U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bournemouth U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Brentford U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Brighton U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Burnley U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chelsea U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Crystal Palace U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Derby U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Everton U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fulham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ipswich U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leeds U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leicester U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Liverpool U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Man City U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Man Utd U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Middlesbrough U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newcastle U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Norwich U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nottm Forest U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Reading U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Southampton U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stoke U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sunderland U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tottenham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	West Brom U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	West Ham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wolverhampton U21	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Aston Villa U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Wigan England EFL Trophy	0-2	2-3	7	2	L
21/07	Tamworth UK Friendlies	0-1	2-1	1	0	W
01/05	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
24/04	Southampton U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	3-3	3	7	D
17/04	Stoke U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
10/04	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
06/04	Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
03/04	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
20/03	Leicester U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
13/03	Norwich U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-1	7	6	W

Brighton U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Northampton England EFL Trophy	2-0	3-0	2	2	W
14/08	Millwall U21 England U21 Premier League Cup	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
16/05	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
08/05	Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
04/05	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
24/04	Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
03/04	Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
22/03	Everton U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	5-0	9	4	W
16/03	Burnley U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
06/03	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	3-4	5	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aston Villa U21 vs Brighton U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Brighton U21 win (43%). Probabilities: Aston Villa U21 33%, draw 24%, Brighton U21 43%.

How many goals are expected in Aston Villa U21 vs Brighton U21?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Aston Villa U21 1.4 · Brighton U21 1.64), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Aston Villa U21 vs Brighton U21?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.