Football · England Premier League 2 · 31/08, 20:00

Prediction: Brighton U21 vs Arsenal U21

Team pages: Brighton U21 · Arsenal U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

Brighton U211.81

Arsenal U211.52

1X2

44% 23% 32%

Brighton U21 Draw Arsenal U21

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Brighton U21 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWDWWWWL

Arsenal U21 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLDLLWLLD

Head-to-head

Brighton U21 0–3–2 Arsenal U21 (5 last)

Arsenal U211-0Brighton U21
Arsenal U211-1Brighton U21
Arsenal U216-3Brighton U21
Arsenal U213-3Brighton U21
Brighton U212-2Arsenal U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brighton U21 1589 · Arsenal U21 1460

	Brighton U21	Draw	Arsenal U21
Our model	44%	25%	32%
Market	45%	22%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brighton U21 (rating 1589 vs 1460).
H2H favours Arsenal U21: 2-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brighton U21	Arsenal U21
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.1	3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X4.00

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:07 +5’	2.00	4.00	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Brighton U21 0–3–2 Arsenal U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/25 England Premier League 2	Arsenal U21	1-0 HT 0-0	Brighton U21
01/12/24 England Premier League 2	Arsenal U21	1-1 HT 1-0	Brighton U21
29/10/23 England Premier League 2	Arsenal U21	6-3 HT 4-1	Brighton U21
14/04/23 England Premier League 2	Arsenal U21	3-3 HT 0-1	Brighton U21
26/08/22 England Premier League 2	Brighton U21	2-2 HT 1-1	Arsenal U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crystal Palace U21	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
2	Liverpool U21	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
3	Southampton U21	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
4	Norwich U21	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
5	Man Utd U21	1	1	0	0	5	0	3
6	Sunderland U21	1	1	0	0	5	1	3
7	Man City U21	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
8	Derby U21	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
8	Tottenham U21	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
10	Fulham U21	1	1	0	0	4	3	3
11	Brentford U21	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
12	Bournemouth U21	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
13	Leeds U21	2	1	0	1	5	5	3
14	Reading U21	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
15	Aston Villa U21	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
16	Ipswich U21	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
17	Nottm Forest U21	2	1	0	1	3	6	3
18	Arsenal U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
19	West Ham U21	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
20	Everton U21	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
20	Stoke U21	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
22	Birmingham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	Leicester U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	West Brom U21	1	0	0	1	3	4	0
25	Brighton U21	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
25	Chelsea U21	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
27	Middlesbrough U21	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
28	Newcastle U21	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
29	Burnley U21	2	0	0	2	4	7	0
30	Blackburn U21	1	0	0	1	1	4	0
31	Wolverhampton U21	1	0	0	1	0	4	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brighton U21	Arsenal U21
Ipswich U21	2-1 W	0-1 L
Newcastle U21	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Brighton U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
16/05	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
08/05	Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
04/05	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
24/04	Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
03/04	Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
22/03	Everton U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	5-0	9	4	W
16/03	Burnley U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
06/03	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	3-4	5	0	L
27/02	Newcastle U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	2-2	3	7	D

Arsenal U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
25/04	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-3	9	4	L
13/04	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
04/04	West Brom U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
23/03	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	0-3	1-3	3	2	L
13/03	Leicester U21 England Premier League 2	1-3	1-5	6	4	L
06/03	Norwich U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	2-2	4	5	D
27/02	Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
23/02	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	4-1	2	8	W
13/02	Newcastle U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brighton U21 vs Arsenal U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Brighton U21 win (44%). Probabilities: Brighton U21 44%, draw 23%, Arsenal U21 32%.

How many goals are expected in Brighton U21 vs Arsenal U21?

The model expects 3.33 goals (Brighton U21 1.81 · Arsenal U21 1.52), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Brighton U21 vs Arsenal U21?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.