Football · England Premier League 2 · 21/08, 20:00

Prediction: Bournemouth U21 vs Chelsea U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.07Total

Bournemouth U211.57

Chelsea U212.5

1X2

23% 20% 57%

Bournemouth U21 Draw Chelsea U21

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Bournemouth U21 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Chelsea U21 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bournemouth U21 0–2 Chelsea U21 (2 last)

Chelsea U212-1Bournemouth U21
Bournemouth U211-4Chelsea U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bournemouth U21 1505 · Chelsea U21 1561

	Bournemouth U21	Draw	Chelsea U21
Our model	23%	20%	57%
Market	22%	21%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 4.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chelsea U21 (rating 1505 vs 1561).
H2H favours Chelsea U21: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bournemouth U21	Chelsea U21
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 2.5	2.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 1.1	1.6 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	90/10/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	3.6 / 7.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.33

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:04 +15’	4.00	4.33	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bournemouth U21 0–0–2 Chelsea U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/12/24 England U21 Premier League Cup	Chelsea U21	2-1 HT 0-1	Bournemouth U21
21/10/24 England U21 Premier League Cup	Bournemouth U21	1-4 HT 0-1	Chelsea U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arsenal U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aston Villa U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Birmingham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Blackburn U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bournemouth U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Brentford U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Brighton U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Burnley U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chelsea U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Crystal Palace U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Derby U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Everton U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fulham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ipswich U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leeds U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leicester U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Liverpool U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Man City U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Man Utd U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Middlesbrough U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newcastle U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Norwich U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nottm Forest U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Reading U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Southampton U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stoke U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sunderland U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tottenham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	West Brom U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	West Ham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wolverhampton U21	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Bournemouth U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Cardiff U21 England U21 Premier League Cup	0-1	1-4	1	4	L
04/05	Huddersfield U21 England Development League 2	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
24/04	Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2 Play-Offs	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
14/04	Hull U21 England Development League 2	3-0	4-0	2	6	W
10/04	QPR U21 England Development League 2	1-3	2-5	7	0	L
07/04	Fleetwood Town U21 England Development League 2	5-1	6-2	5	5	W
03/04	Charlton U21 England Development League 2	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
30/03	Crewe U21 England Development League 2	1-1	3-2	3	1	W
27/03	West Brom U21 England U21 Premier League Cup	2-2	4-5	6	0	L
23/03	Sheff Utd U21 England Development League 2	0-1	3-2	4	4	W

Chelsea U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/05	Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-3	12	8	L
25/04	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
10/04	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
20/03	Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2	3-0	4-0	7	5	W
14/03	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	3-0	4-0	10	2	W
09/03	Birmingham U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	4-1	6	4	W
02/03	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
20/02	Leeds U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	2-2	6	6	D
07/02	Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	5-0	10	2	W
30/01	Southampton U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	4-2	10	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bournemouth U21 vs Chelsea U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chelsea U21 win (57%). Probabilities: Bournemouth U21 23%, draw 20%, Chelsea U21 57%.

How many goals are expected in Bournemouth U21 vs Chelsea U21?

The model expects 4.07 goals (Bournemouth U21 1.57 · Chelsea U21 2.5), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bournemouth U21 vs Chelsea U21?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.