Football · England Premier League 2 · 22/08, 14:00

Prediction: Arsenal U21 vs Crystal Palace U21

Team pages: Arsenal U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Arsenal U211.81

Crystal Palace U211.5

1X2

45% 24% 32%

Arsenal U21 Draw Crystal Palace U21

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Arsenal U21 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Crystal Palace U21 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Arsenal U21 0–2–2 Crystal Palace U21 (4 last)

Crystal Palace U212-0Arsenal U21
Crystal Palace U212-2Arsenal U21
Crystal Palace U212-0Arsenal U21
Arsenal U211-1Crystal Palace U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arsenal U21 1453 · Crystal Palace U21 1484

	Arsenal U21	Draw	Crystal Palace U21
Our model	44%	25%	31%
Market	45%	23%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Crystal Palace U21: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arsenal U21	Crystal Palace U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.3	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.7	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.90

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.46 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:13 +2’	2.00	3.90	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:13 +1’	2.46	3.77	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arsenal U21 0–2–2 Crystal Palace U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/26 England Premier League 2	Crystal Palace U21	2-0 HT 1-0	Arsenal U21
03/03/25 England Premier League 2	Crystal Palace U21	2-2 HT 1-0	Arsenal U21
17/03/23 England Premier League 2	Crystal Palace U21	2-0 HT 1-0	Arsenal U21
31/10/22 England Premier League 2	Arsenal U21	1-1 HT 1-1	Crystal Palace U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arsenal U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aston Villa U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Birmingham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Blackburn U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bournemouth U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Brentford U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Brighton U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Burnley U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chelsea U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Crystal Palace U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Derby U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Everton U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fulham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ipswich U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leeds U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leicester U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Liverpool U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Man City U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Man Utd U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Middlesbrough U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newcastle U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Norwich U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nottm Forest U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Reading U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Southampton U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stoke U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sunderland U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tottenham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	West Brom U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	West Ham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wolverhampton U21	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Arsenal U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Barnet England EFL Trophy	1-3	1-5	12	3	L
17/07	Boreham Wood UK Friendlies	0-0	1-1	0	0	D
25/04	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-3	9	4	L
13/04	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
04/04	West Brom U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
23/03	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	0-3	1-3	3	2	L
13/03	Leicester U21 England Premier League 2	1-3	1-5	6	4	L
06/03	Norwich U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	2-2	4	5	D
27/02	Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
23/02	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	4-1	2	8	W

Crystal Palace U21

LWDLWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Dag & Red UK Friendlies	0-3	0-5	2	0	L
04/05	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
26/04	Liverpool U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	2-2	5	5	D
13/04	Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
03/04	Nottm Forest U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	2	0	L
22/03	Liverpool U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	5-1	7	2	W
18/03	Real Sociedad U21 Premier League International Cup	0-1	0-3	2	7	L
14/03	Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	8	2	D
06/03	Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
02/03	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arsenal U21 vs Crystal Palace U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arsenal U21 win (45%). Probabilities: Arsenal U21 45%, draw 24%, Crystal Palace U21 32%.

How many goals are expected in Arsenal U21 vs Crystal Palace U21?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Arsenal U21 1.81 · Crystal Palace U21 1.5), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal U21 vs Crystal Palace U21?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.