Football · England Premier League 2 · 24/08, 20:00

Prediction: Reading U21 vs Derby U21

Team pages: Derby U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

Reading U212

Derby U211.49

1X2

49% 23% 28%

Reading U21 Draw Derby U21

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Reading U21 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWLDW

Derby U21 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDDDLWWWWL

Head-to-head

Reading U21 1–2 Derby U21 (3 last)

Reading U214-1Derby U21
Reading U210-1Derby U21
Derby U215-1Reading U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Reading U21 1489 · Derby U21 1466

	Reading U21	Draw	Derby U21
Our model	49%	23%	28%
Market	49%	23%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Derby U21: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Reading U21	Derby U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.8	1.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.90

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:46 +5’	1.83	3.90	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Reading U21 1–0–2 Derby U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/26 England Premier League 2	Reading U21	4-1 HT 1-1	Derby U21
17/01/25 England Premier League 2	Reading U21	0-1 HT 0-0	Derby U21
04/12/23 England Premier League 2	Derby U21	5-1 HT 2-0	Reading U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Fulham U21	1	1	0	0	4	3	3
2	Brentford U21	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
3	Aston Villa U21	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	Bournemouth U21	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
5	Arsenal U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Crystal Palace U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Everton U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Liverpool U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Southampton U21	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
9	West Ham U21	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Birmingham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Blackburn U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Derby U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Ipswich U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Leeds U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Leicester U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Man City U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Man Utd U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Middlesbrough U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Newcastle U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Norwich U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Nottm Forest U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Reading U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Sunderland U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	West Brom U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Wolverhampton U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Burnley U21	1	0	0	1	3	4	0
29	Stoke U21	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
30	Brighton U21	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
30	Chelsea U21	1	0	0	1	1	2	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Reading U21	Derby U21
Sunderland U21	2-2 D	2-1 W
Man Utd U21	0-1 L	1-1 D
West Ham U21	2-1 W	4-2 W
Burnley U21	3-1 W	1-1 D
Nottm Forest U21	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Derby U21 (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Reading U21

WWWLLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/04	Derby U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	4-1	10	6	W
30/03	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
20/03	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
13/03	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
09/03	Everton U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
02/03	Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	1-2	9	2	L
23/02	Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	1-4	2	8	L
07/02	Stoke U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
30/01	Burnley U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	3-1	7	2	W
26/01	Nottm Forest U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	2	1	W

Derby U21

LDDDLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/04	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-4	7	6	L
06/04	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
03/04	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
20/03	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
06/03	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	4-2	1	2	W
02/03	West Brom U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-4	5	3	L
23/02	Burnley U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/02	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/01	Nottm Forest U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
26/01	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	0-4	0-6	7	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Reading U21 vs Derby U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Reading U21 win (49%). Probabilities: Reading U21 49%, draw 23%, Derby U21 28%.

How many goals are expected in Reading U21 vs Derby U21?

The model expects 3.49 goals (Reading U21 2 · Derby U21 1.49), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Reading U21 vs Derby U21?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.