Football · England Premier League 2 · 24/08, 20:00

Prediction: Sunderland U21 vs Nottm Forest U21

Team pages: Nottm Forest U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Sunderland U211.68

Nottm Forest U211.54

1X2

41% 24% 35%

Sunderland U21 Draw Nottm Forest U21

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sunderland U21 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWDLL

Nottm Forest U21 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLLLLWWW

Head-to-head

Sunderland U21 3–2–1 Nottm Forest U21 (6 last)

Nottm Forest U211-6Sunderland U21
Nottm Forest U212-0Sunderland U21
Sunderland U210-0Nottm Forest U21
Nottm Forest U211-1Sunderland U21
Nottm Forest U210-5Sunderland U21
Sunderland U213-1Nottm Forest U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sunderland U21 1536 · Nottm Forest U21 1507

	Sunderland U21	Draw	Nottm Forest U21
Our model	40%	25%	34%
Market	42%	22%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sunderland U21: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sunderland U21	Nottm Forest U21
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.7	0.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	2.5 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X4.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:46 +5’	2.15	4.00	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sunderland U21 3–2–1 Nottm Forest U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/02/26 England U21 Premier League Cup	Nottm Forest U21	1-6 HT 1-2	Sunderland U21
03/11/25 England Premier League 2	Nottm Forest U21	2-0 HT 0-0	Sunderland U21
04/04/25 England Premier League 2	Sunderland U21	0-0 HT 0-0	Nottm Forest U21
08/03/24 England U21 Premier League Cup	Nottm Forest U21	1-1 HT 0-1	Sunderland U21
12/01/24 England Premier League 2	Nottm Forest U21	0-5 HT 0-4	Sunderland U21
03/04/23 England Premier League 2	Sunderland U21	3-1 HT 1-1	Nottm Forest U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Fulham U21	1	1	0	0	4	3	3
2	Brentford U21	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
3	Aston Villa U21	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	Bournemouth U21	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
5	Arsenal U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Crystal Palace U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Everton U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Liverpool U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Southampton U21	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
9	West Ham U21	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Birmingham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Blackburn U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Derby U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Ipswich U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Leeds U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Leicester U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Man City U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Man Utd U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Middlesbrough U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Newcastle U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Norwich U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Nottm Forest U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Reading U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Sunderland U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	West Brom U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Wolverhampton U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Burnley U21	1	0	0	1	3	4	0
29	Stoke U21	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
30	Brighton U21	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
30	Chelsea U21	1	0	0	1	1	2	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sunderland U21	Nottm Forest U21
Derby U21	1-2 L	0-0 D
Reading U21	2-2 D	0-1 L
Crystal Palace U21	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nottm Forest U21 (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sunderland U21

WWWWWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/04	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	2-3	5	5	L
06/04	Derby U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-2	5	7	L
30/03	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
23/03	Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2	3-0	3-1	4	2	W
14/03	Chelsea U21 England Premier League 2	0-3	0-4	4	2	L
09/03	Leeds U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	5-2	11	5	W
02/03	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
20/02	Everton U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
06/02	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
01/02	Leicester U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	3-2	4	3	W

Nottm Forest U21

LDWLLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/04	Crystal Palace U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	2-0	4	0	W
20/03	Newcastle U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	3-0	6	5	W
13/03	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	2-1	12	2	W
06/03	Southampton U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
27/02	Man City U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
20/02	Liverpool U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
16/02	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
07/02	West Brom U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
30/01	Derby U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
26/01	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sunderland U21 vs Nottm Forest U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sunderland U21 win (41%). Probabilities: Sunderland U21 41%, draw 24%, Nottm Forest U21 35%.

How many goals are expected in Sunderland U21 vs Nottm Forest U21?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Sunderland U21 1.68 · Nottm Forest U21 1.54), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sunderland U21 vs Nottm Forest U21?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.