Football · England Premier League 2 · 28/08, 20:00
Prediction: Aston Villa U21 vs Crystal Palace U21
Team pages: Aston Villa U21 · Crystal Palace U21
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.22Total
Aston Villa U211.68
Crystal Palace U211.54
1X2
Aston Villa U21
Draw
Crystal Palace U21
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Aston Villa U21
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Crystal Palace U21
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Aston Villa U21
0–3
Crystal Palace U21
(3 last)
- Aston Villa U210-2Crystal Palace U21
- Crystal Palace U213-0Aston Villa U21
- Crystal Palace U214-2Aston Villa U21
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aston Villa U21 1512 · Crystal Palace U21 1472
| Aston Villa U21 | Draw | Crystal Palace U21 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 25% | 34% |
| Market | 41% | 23% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aston Villa U21 (rating 1512 vs 1472).
- H2H favours Crystal Palace U21: 3-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aston Villa U21 | Crystal Palace U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.7 | 1.4 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.6 | 2.2 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aston Villa U21 0–0–3 Crystal Palace U21
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/25 England Premier League 2 | Aston Villa U21 | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Crystal Palace U21 |
| 17/02/25 England Premier League 2 | Crystal Palace U21 | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Aston Villa U21 |
| 11/03/24 England Premier League 2 | Crystal Palace U21 | 4-2 HT 3-0 | Aston Villa U21 |
Standings · England Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man Utd U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Sunderland U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Man City U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Derby U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Tottenham U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Fulham U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Leeds U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 8 | Brentford U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Bournemouth U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Norwich U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Arsenal U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Everton U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Liverpool U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Southampton U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | West Ham U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Birmingham U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Blackburn U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Leicester U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Burnley U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 | West Brom U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 | Stoke U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 | Brighton U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 | Chelsea U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 | Middlesbrough U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 | Newcastle U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 | Reading U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 | Nottm Forest U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 | Wolverhampton U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 | Ipswich U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aston Villa U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Brighton U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 01/05 | Man City U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Southampton U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 17/04 | Stoke U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 10/04 | Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 06/04 | Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 03/04 | Brighton U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 20/03 | Leicester U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 13/03 | Norwich U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 06/03 | Man City U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-4 | 0-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
Crystal Palace U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 04/05 | Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Liverpool U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 13/04 | Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 03/04 | Nottm Forest U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 22/03 | Liverpool U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 14/03 | Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 06/03 | Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 02/03 | Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 23/02 | West Ham U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aston Villa U21 vs Crystal Palace U21?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Aston Villa U21 win (41%). Probabilities: Aston Villa U21 41%, draw 24%, Crystal Palace U21 35%.
How many goals are expected in Aston Villa U21 vs Crystal Palace U21?
The model expects 3.22 goals (Aston Villa U21 1.68 · Crystal Palace U21 1.54), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa U21 vs Crystal Palace U21?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.