Football · England Premier League 2 · 28/08, 20:00

Prediction: Burnley U21 vs Reading U21

Team pages: Burnley U21 · Reading U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Burnley U211.71

Reading U211.53

1X2

42% 24% 34%

Burnley U21 Draw Reading U21

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Burnley U21 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDDLWLDLL

Reading U21 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWLDWL

Head-to-head

Burnley U21 2–2 Reading U21 (4 last)

Burnley U211-3Reading U21
Burnley U214-1Reading U21
Reading U211-3Burnley U21
Reading U212-0Burnley U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Burnley U21 1462 · Reading U21 1467

	Burnley U21	Draw	Reading U21
Our model	41%	25%	34%
Market	42%	23%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Burnley U21	Reading U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.2	2.7 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.90

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.30 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:06 +3’	2.10	3.90	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:13	2.30	3.81	2.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Burnley U21 2–0–2 Reading U21

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
30/01/26 England Premier League 2	Burnley U21	1-3 HT 0-2	Reading U21
04/02/25 England U21 Premier League Cup	Burnley U21	4-1 HT 2-1	Reading U21
08/11/24 England U21 Premier League Cup	Reading U21	1-3 HT 1-2	Burnley U21
15/08/22 England Development League 2	Reading U21	2-0 HT 2-0	Burnley U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Man Utd U21	1	1	0	0	5	0	3
2	Sunderland U21	1	1	0	0	5	1	3
3	Man City U21	1	1	0	0	4	0	3
4	Derby U21	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
4	Tottenham U21	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
6	Fulham U21	1	1	0	0	4	3	3
6	Leeds U21	1	1	0	0	4	3	3
8	Brentford U21	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
9	Aston Villa U21	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
9	Bournemouth U21	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
11	Norwich U21	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
12	Arsenal U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
12	Crystal Palace U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
12	Everton U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
12	Liverpool U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
16	Southampton U21	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
16	West Ham U21	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
18	Birmingham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Blackburn U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leicester U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Burnley U21	1	0	0	1	3	4	0
21	West Brom U21	1	0	0	1	3	4	0
23	Stoke U21	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
24	Brighton U21	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
24	Chelsea U21	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
26	Middlesbrough U21	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
27	Newcastle U21	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
27	Reading U21	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
29	Nottm Forest U21	1	0	0	1	1	5	0
30	Wolverhampton U21	1	0	0	1	0	4	0
31	Ipswich U21	1	0	0	1	0	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Burnley U21	Reading U21
Stoke U21	3-1 W	3-0 W
Derby U21	1-1 D	1-3 L
Everton U21	2-2 D	1-0 W
Arsenal U21	0-1 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Burnley U21

LLDDLWLDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	3-4	3	3	L
12/04	Blackburn U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
23/03	Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
16/03	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
09/03	Stoke U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	3-1	12	7	W
27/02	Fulham U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	1-3	3	1	L
23/02	Derby U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
16/02	Everton U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
30/01	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	1-3	7	2	L
23/01	Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-1	2	3	L

Reading U21

WWLLWWLDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Derby U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
13/04	Derby U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	4-1	10	6	W
30/03	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
20/03	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
13/03	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
09/03	Everton U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
02/03	Wolverhampton U21 England Premier League 2	0-2	1-2	9	2	L
23/02	Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	1-4	2	8	L
07/02	Stoke U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
30/01	Burnley U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	3-1	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Burnley U21 vs Reading U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Burnley U21 win (42%). Probabilities: Burnley U21 42%, draw 24%, Reading U21 34%.

How many goals are expected in Burnley U21 vs Reading U21?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Burnley U21 1.71 · Reading U21 1.53), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Burnley U21 vs Reading U21?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.