Football · England Premier League 2 · 28/08, 20:00

Prediction: Everton U21 vs Southampton U21

Team pages: Everton U21 · Southampton U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Everton U211.81

Southampton U211.58

1X2

43% 24% 33%

Everton U21 Draw Southampton U21

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Everton U21 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLDLLDWD

Southampton U21 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDWDWLWLDD

Head-to-head

Everton U21 1–1–2 Southampton U21 (4 last)

Southampton U212-2Everton U21
Everton U211-2Southampton U21
Everton U215-0Southampton U21
Everton U211-2Southampton U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Everton U21 1471 · Southampton U21 1495

	Everton U21	Draw	Southampton U21
Our model	43%	24%	33%
Market	43%	23%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Southampton U21: 2-1-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Everton U21	Southampton U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.90

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.39 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:06 +3’	2.05	3.90	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:13	2.39	3.80	2.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Everton U21 1–1–2 Southampton U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 England Premier League 2	Southampton U21	2-2 HT 1-1	Everton U21
14/02/25 England Premier League 2	Everton U21	1-2 HT 1-1	Southampton U21
04/12/23 England Premier League 2	Everton U21	5-0 HT 2-0	Southampton U21
13/11/22 England U21 Premier League Cup	Everton U21	1-2 HT 1-0	Southampton U21

Standings · England Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Man Utd U21	1	1	0	0	5	0	3
2	Sunderland U21	1	1	0	0	5	1	3
3	Man City U21	1	1	0	0	4	0	3
4	Derby U21	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
4	Tottenham U21	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
6	Fulham U21	1	1	0	0	4	3	3
6	Leeds U21	1	1	0	0	4	3	3
8	Brentford U21	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
9	Aston Villa U21	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
9	Bournemouth U21	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
11	Norwich U21	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
12	Arsenal U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
12	Crystal Palace U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
12	Everton U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
12	Liverpool U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
16	Southampton U21	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
16	West Ham U21	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
18	Birmingham U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Blackburn U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leicester U21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Burnley U21	1	0	0	1	3	4	0
21	West Brom U21	1	0	0	1	3	4	0
23	Stoke U21	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
24	Brighton U21	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
24	Chelsea U21	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
26	Middlesbrough U21	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
27	Newcastle U21	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
27	Reading U21	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
29	Nottm Forest U21	1	0	0	1	1	5	0
30	Wolverhampton U21	1	0	0	1	0	4	0
31	Ipswich U21	1	0	0	1	0	5	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Everton U21

WDDLDLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Liverpool U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
17/04	Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2	3-2	8-4	5	3	W
03/04	Birmingham U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
22/03	Brighton U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-5	2	4	L
09/03	Reading U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
27/02	Southampton U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	7	4	D
20/02	Sunderland U21 England Premier League 2	1-2	1-2	13	3	L
16/02	Burnley U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
06/02	Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
30/01	Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	2-0	2	3	W

Southampton U21

DDWDWLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	West Ham U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
24/04	Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	3-3	8	7	D
12/04	Stoke U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
20/03	Leeds U21 England Premier League 2	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
13/03	Man Utd U21 England Premier League 2	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
06/03	Nottm Forest U21 England Premier League 2	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
27/02	Everton U21 England Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
20/02	Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
13/02	Norwich U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
08/02	Liverpool U21 England Premier League 2	0-1	1-1	7	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Everton U21 vs Southampton U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Everton U21 win (43%). Probabilities: Everton U21 43%, draw 24%, Southampton U21 33%.

How many goals are expected in Everton U21 vs Southampton U21?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Everton U21 1.81 · Southampton U21 1.58), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Everton U21 vs Southampton U21?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.