Football · England Premier League 2 · 28/08, 20:00
Prediction: Norwich U21 vs Stoke U21
Team pages: Norwich U21 · Stoke U21
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.55Total
Norwich U212.07
Stoke U211.48
1X2
Norwich U21
Draw
Stoke U21
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Norwich U21
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Stoke U21
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Norwich U21
2–1–3
Stoke U21
(6 last)
- Norwich U214-2Stoke U21
- Norwich U210-3Stoke U21
- Stoke U214-2Norwich U21
- Norwich U213-0Stoke U21
- Stoke U212-2Norwich U21
- Norwich U210-1Stoke U21
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Norwich U21 1520 · Stoke U21 1413
| Norwich U21 | Draw | Stoke U21 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Market | 51% | 22% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Norwich U21 (rating 1520 vs 1413).
- H2H favours Stoke U21: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Norwich U21 | Stoke U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.9 | 1.2 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 0/20/80% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.4 | 1.5 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Norwich U21 2–1–3 Stoke U21
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/26 England Premier League 2 | Norwich U21 | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Stoke U21 |
| 11/04/25 England Premier League 2 | Norwich U21 | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Stoke U21 |
| 08/01/24 England Premier League 2 | Stoke U21 | 4-2 HT 0-1 | Norwich U21 |
| 06/01/23 England Premier League 2 | Norwich U21 | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Stoke U21 |
| 09/10/22 England Premier League 2 | Stoke U21 | 2-2 | Norwich U21 |
| 22/08/16 England Premier League 2 | Norwich U21 | 0-1 | Stoke U21 |
Standings · England Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man Utd U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Sunderland U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Man City U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Derby U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Tottenham U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Fulham U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Leeds U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 8 | Brentford U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Bournemouth U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Norwich U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Arsenal U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Everton U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Liverpool U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Southampton U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | West Ham U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Birmingham U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Blackburn U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Leicester U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Burnley U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 | West Brom U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 | Stoke U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 | Brighton U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 | Chelsea U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 | Middlesbrough U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 | Newcastle U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 | Reading U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 | Nottm Forest U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 | Wolverhampton U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 | Ipswich U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Norwich U21 | Stoke U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough U21 | 1-0 W | 1-6 L |
| Man City U21 | 0-3 L | 1-6 L |
| Aston Villa U21 | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Southampton U21 | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Fulham U21 | 0-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Norwich U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 13/04 | Man City U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 20/03 | West Brom U21 England Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/03 | Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 06/03 | Arsenal U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 27/02 | Stoke U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 20/02 | Tottenham U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 13/02 | Southampton U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/02 | Leicester U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 30/01 | Fulham U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
Stoke U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Brentford U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 17/04 | Aston Villa U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 12/04 | Southampton U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 23/03 | Fulham U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 3-2 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 13/03 | Middlesbrough U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-3 | 1-6 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 09/03 | Burnley U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 27/02 | Norwich U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 13/02 | Ipswich U21 England Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 07/02 | Reading U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 30/01 | Man City U21 England Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 1-6 | 0 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Norwich U21 vs Stoke U21?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Norwich U21 win (51%). Probabilities: Norwich U21 51%, draw 23%, Stoke U21 27%.
How many goals are expected in Norwich U21 vs Stoke U21?
The model expects 3.55 goals (Norwich U21 2.07 · Stoke U21 1.48), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Norwich U21 vs Stoke U21?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.