Football · Italy Serie D · 11/10, 15:00

Prediction: Vigor Senigallia vs ASD Atletico Ascoli

Team pages: Vigor Senigallia · ASD Atletico Ascoli

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Vigor Senigallia1.81

ASD Atletico Ascoli1.34

1X2

47% 25% 27%

Vigor Senigallia Draw ASD Atletico Ascoli

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Vigor Senigallia 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLDWWWWDL

ASD Atletico Ascoli 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLDLWDWLL

Head-to-head

Vigor Senigallia 1–3–2 ASD Atletico Ascoli (6 last)

Vigor Senigallia2-2ASD Atletico Ascoli
ASD Atletico Ascoli2-1Vigor Senigallia
Vigor Senigallia0-0ASD Atletico Ascoli
ASD Atletico Ascoli2-2Vigor Senigallia
Vigor Senigallia0-1ASD Atletico Ascoli
ASD Atletico Ascoli1-2Vigor Senigallia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vigor Senigallia 1521 · ASD Atletico Ascoli 1469

	Vigor Senigallia	Draw	ASD Atletico Ascoli
Our model	47%	25%	28%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vigor Senigallia (rating 1521 vs 1469).
H2H favours ASD Atletico Ascoli: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vigor Senigallia	ASD Atletico Ascoli
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.9	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.2	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	33/50/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.4	2.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
03:23 +4’	1.91	3.50	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vigor Senigallia 1–3–2 ASD Atletico Ascoli

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Italy Serie D	Vigor Senigallia	2-2 HT 1-1	ASD Atletico Ascoli
30/11/25 Italy Serie D	ASD Atletico Ascoli	2-1 HT 2-0	Vigor Senigallia
13/04/25 Italy Serie D	Vigor Senigallia	0-0	ASD Atletico Ascoli
01/12/24 Italy Serie D	ASD Atletico Ascoli	2-2	Vigor Senigallia
03/03/24 Italy Serie D	Vigor Senigallia	0-1	ASD Atletico Ascoli
29/10/23 Italy Serie D	ASD Atletico Ascoli	1-2 HT 1-0	Vigor Senigallia

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	6	5	0	1	15	1	15
2	Vibonese	6	4	1	1	15	5	13
3	Sambiase	6	4	1	1	10	5	13
4	Calcio Avola 1949	6	4	0	2	9	10	12
5	Igea Virtus	6	3	2	1	14	11	11
6	ASD Licata	6	3	2	1	8	8	11
7	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	6	2	3	1	8	4	9
8	Milazzo	6	3	0	3	5	8	9
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
10	Nissa FC	6	2	2	2	9	9	8
11	Modica	6	2	1	3	6	5	7
12	Vigor Lamezia	6	1	2	3	7	13	5
13	Siracusa	6	3	2	1	8	5	4
14	Città di Gela	6	1	2	3	4	6	4
15	ASD CastrumFavara	6	1	1	4	5	7	4
16	ASD Ragusa	6	0	2	4	4	9	2
17	Trapani	6	2	0	4	3	10	1
18	Enna Calcio	6	0	1	5	0	15	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vigor Senigallia	ASD Atletico Ascoli
Teramo	4-6 L	1-1 D
FC Forsempronese	0-0 D	0-1 L
Giulianova Calcio 1924	1-0 W	2-4 L
ASD Sporting Trestina	5-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vigor Senigallia (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vigor Senigallia

DWLDWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Teramo Italy Serie D	2-3	4-6	1	4	L
27/09	FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
20/09	Termoli Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
16/09	Lanciano Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
13/09	Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
06/09	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	2-2	5-2	6	4	W
03/05	Unipomezia Italy Serie D	–	3-3	–	–	D
26/04	Chieti Italy Serie D	–	2-3	–	–	L
19/04	Castelfidardo Italy Serie D	–	3-1	–	–	W
12/04	ASD Atletico Ascoli Italy Serie D	1-1	2-2	8	5	D

ASD Atletico Ascoli

DDLDLWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/09	Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	1-1	2-4	4	6	L
20/09	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
16/09	L'Aquila Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	Maceratese Italy Serie D	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
06/09	Angelana 1930 Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/05	Teramo Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
26/04	Sammaurese Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L
19/04	FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
12/04	Vigor Senigallia Italy Serie D	1-1	2-2	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vigor Senigallia vs ASD Atletico Ascoli?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vigor Senigallia win (47%). Probabilities: Vigor Senigallia 47%, draw 25%, ASD Atletico Ascoli 27%.

How many goals are expected in Vigor Senigallia vs ASD Atletico Ascoli?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Vigor Senigallia 1.81 · ASD Atletico Ascoli 1.34), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Vigor Senigallia vs ASD Atletico Ascoli?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.