Football · Spain Tercera Group 11 · 18/10, 12:00

Prediction: Llosetense vs CE Constancia

Team pages: Llosetense · CE Constancia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Llosetense1.12

CE Constancia1.23

1X2

33% 29% 38%

Llosetense Draw CE Constancia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Llosetense 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLWLDWWL

CE Constancia 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDWDLWWW

Head-to-head

Llosetense 1–1–4 CE Constancia (6 last)

Llosetense1-1CE Constancia
CE Constancia3-0Llosetense
Llosetense0-1CE Constancia
CE Constancia3-0Llosetense
Llosetense0-2CE Constancia
CE Constancia0-1Llosetense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Llosetense 1513 · CE Constancia 1564

	Llosetense	Draw	CE Constancia
Our model	32%	31%	38%
Market	33%	28%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CE Constancia (rating 1513 vs 1564).
H2H favours CE Constancia: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Llosetense	CE Constancia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	67/17/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.7	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0	5.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.20

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.70▼	Bet365 2.70
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.15 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.67 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:32 +21’	2.90	3.20	2.15
08:54 +8’	2.70▼	3.20	2.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:28 +6’	3.17	3.00	2.20
08:05 +58’	2.63▼	2.90▼	2.64▲
10:02 +1’	2.66▲	2.94▲	2.67▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Llosetense 1–1–4 CE Constancia

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 11	Llosetense	1-1 HT 1-0	CE Constancia
20/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 11	CE Constancia	3-0	Llosetense
22/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 11	Llosetense	0-1 HT 0-0	CE Constancia
13/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 11	CE Constancia	3-0 HT 1-0	Llosetense
04/02/24 Spain Tercera Group 11	Llosetense	0-2 HT 0-0	CE Constancia
16/09/23 Spain Tercera Group 11	CE Constancia	0-1 HT 0-0	Llosetense

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 11

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	5	1	0	11	2	16
2	Manacor	6	5	0	1	15	7	15
3	Platges de Calvia	7	5	0	2	12	5	15
4	CD Cardassar	6	4	1	1	13	6	13
5	CE Constancia	6	4	1	1	10	3	13
6	Santanyi	6	3	3	0	8	3	12
7	Formentera	6	3	2	1	9	4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	3	2	1	10	7	11
9	Llosetense	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
10	Alcudia	6	3	0	3	11	11	9
11	UE Porreres	6	3	0	3	7	7	9
12	Binissalem	6	2	0	4	8	11	6
13	Mercadal	6	1	2	3	6	8	5
14	CE Andratx	7	1	2	4	6	10	5
15	CD Migjorn	7	1	1	5	6	15	4
16	UD Arenal	6	1	0	5	5	14	3
17	CE Sineu	7	0	1	6	3	16	1
18	Inter Ibiza	6	0	1	5	2	15	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Llosetense	CE Constancia
Santanyi	0-3 L	1-1 D
UD Arenal	3-1 W	3-0 W
Inter Ibiza	3-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CE Constancia (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Llosetense

WDDLWLDWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Santanyi Spain Tercera Group 11	–	0-3	–	–	L
03/10	UD Arenal Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-1	–	–	W
26/09	Inter Ibiza Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-1	–	–	W
19/09	Formentera Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
12/09	CE Andratx Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
05/09	CE Sineu Spain Tercera Group 11	–	2-0	–	–	W
23/05	Manacor Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-2	–	–	L
17/05	Manacor Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
10/05	Formentera Spain Tercera Group 11	–	2-2	–	–	D
03/05	Inter Ibiza Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-0	–	–	W

CE Constancia

DWWDWDLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	UE Porreres Spain Tercera Group 11	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
03/10	Mercadal Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-1	–	–	W
26/09	Alcudia Spain Tercera Group 11	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
20/09	CD Cardassar Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
13/09	Santanyi Spain Tercera Group 11	1-0	1-1	6	8	D
05/09	UD Arenal Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-0	–	–	W
17/05	SCR Pena Deportiva Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/05	Inter Ibiza Spain Tercera Group 11	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
03/05	Rotlet Molinar Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-1	–	–	W
25/04	Llosetense Spain Tercera Group 11	0-1	1-1	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Llosetense vs CE Constancia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CE Constancia win (38%). Probabilities: Llosetense 33%, draw 29%, CE Constancia 38%.

How many goals are expected in Llosetense vs CE Constancia?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Llosetense 1.12 · CE Constancia 1.23), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Llosetense vs CE Constancia?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.