Football · Spain Tercera Group 12 · 26/09, 12:00

Prediction: Real Union de Tenerife vs Panaderia Pulido

Team pages: Real Union de Tenerife · Panaderia Pulido

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

Real Union de Tenerife1.3

Panaderia Pulido0.95

1X2

44% 29% 27%

Real Union de Tenerife Draw Panaderia Pulido

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Union de Tenerife 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLDWL

Panaderia Pulido 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLDDDLWD

Head-to-head

Real Union de Tenerife 0–2 Panaderia Pulido (2 last)

Panaderia Pulido2-1Real Union de Tenerife
Real Union de Tenerife1-4Panaderia Pulido

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Union de Tenerife 1427 · Panaderia Pulido 1519

	Real Union de Tenerife	Draw	Panaderia Pulido
Our model	43%	31%	26%
Market	45%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Panaderia Pulido (rating 1427 vs 1519).
H2H favours Panaderia Pulido: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Union de Tenerife	Panaderia Pulido
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/67/0%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	6.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 09:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.23 ★
X	3.10 → 3.25▲	Bet365 3.25
2	3.00 → 3.25▲	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:36 +6’	2.25	3.10	3.00
02:32 +3’	2.50▲	3.10	2.60▼
08:16 +3’	2.20▼	3.10	3.00▲
09:11 +31’	2.00▼	3.25▲	3.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:29 +73’	2.53	2.92	2.73
08:09 +9’	2.26▼	2.98▲	3.06▲
09:31 +11’	2.23▼	3.04▲	3.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Union de Tenerife 0–0–2 Panaderia Pulido

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 12	Panaderia Pulido	2-1	Real Union de Tenerife
06/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 12	Real Union de Tenerife	1-4 HT 0-2	Panaderia Pulido

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 12

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Las Palmas C	3	2	1	0	7	3	7
2	UD San Fernando	2	2	0	0	8	0	6
3	CF San Bartolome	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
4	Tenerife C	3	1	1	1	6	6	4
5	Panaderia Pulido	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
6	CD Arcangel San Miguel	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	Estrella CF	3	1	1	1	6	6	4
8	UD Anaza	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
9	CD Marino	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
10	Real Union de Tenerife	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
11	Mensajero	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
12	Llanos Aridane	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
13	Lanzarote	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
14	SD Villaverde Norte	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
15	Villa Sta Brigida	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
16	Union Sur Yaiza	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
17	CD Laguna	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
18	UD Playas de Sotavento	2	0	0	2	0	7	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Union de Tenerife	Panaderia Pulido
CD Marino	1-3 L	2-1 W
UD Tamaraceite	0-1 L	2-3 L
Las Palmas C	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Panaderia Pulido (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Union de Tenerife

DWLLLLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	CD Marino Spain Tercera Group 12	0-0	1-3	5	6	L
12/09	Llanos Aridane Spain Tercera Group 12	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
10/05	Lanzarote Spain Tercera Group 12	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/05	UD Tamaraceite Spain Tercera Group 12	–	0-1	–	–	L
25/04	CD Herbania Spain Tercera Group 12	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/04	Las Palmas C Spain Tercera Group 12	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
11/04	Panaderia Pulido Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-2	–	–	L
08/04	Mensajero Spain Tercera Group 12	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
02/04	UD Telde Spain Tercera Group 12	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
27/03	CD Marino Spain Tercera Group 12	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Panaderia Pulido

LWDLDDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Tenerife C Spain Tercera Group 12	2-2	3-3	8	7	D
13/09	CD Marino Spain Tercera Group 12	1-1	2-1	3	8	W
16/05	UD San Fernando Spain Tercera Group 12	–	0-2	–	–	L
10/05	Union Sur Yaiza Spain Tercera Group 12	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/05	CD Arcangel San Miguel Spain Tercera Group 12	1-0	1-1	1	8	D
25/04	CD Atletico Paso Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/04	Las Palmas C Spain Tercera Group 12	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
19/04	Tenisca Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/04	Real Union de Tenerife Spain Tercera Group 12	–	2-1	–	–	W
01/04	UD Tamaraceite Spain Tercera Group 12	1-1	2-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Union de Tenerife vs Panaderia Pulido?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Union de Tenerife win (44%). Probabilities: Real Union de Tenerife 44%, draw 29%, Panaderia Pulido 27%.

How many goals are expected in Real Union de Tenerife vs Panaderia Pulido?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Real Union de Tenerife 1.3 · Panaderia Pulido 0.95), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Union de Tenerife vs Panaderia Pulido?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.