Football · Spain Tercera Group 12 · 19/09, 18:00
Prediction: Las Palmas C vs Union Sur Yaiza
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Las Palmas C1.58
Union Sur Yaiza0.73
1X2
Las Palmas C
Draw
Union Sur Yaiza
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Las Palmas C
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Union Sur Yaiza
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Las Palmas C
3–1–2
Union Sur Yaiza
(6 last)
- Union Sur Yaiza0-1Las Palmas C
- Las Palmas C0-1Union Sur Yaiza
- Union Sur Yaiza1-0Las Palmas C
- Las Palmas C3-1Union Sur Yaiza
- Las Palmas C2-0Union Sur Yaiza
- Union Sur Yaiza0-0Las Palmas C
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Las Palmas C 1570 · Union Sur Yaiza 1474
| Las Palmas C | Draw | Union Sur Yaiza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 27% | 16% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Las Palmas C (rating 1570 vs 1474).
- H2H favours Las Palmas C: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Las Palmas C | Union Sur Yaiza | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 4.6 | 1 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0 | 4.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Las Palmas C 3–1–2 Union Sur Yaiza
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 12 | Union Sur Yaiza | 0-1 | Las Palmas C |
| 06/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 12 | Las Palmas C | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Union Sur Yaiza |
| 19/03/22 Spain Tercera Group 12 | Union Sur Yaiza | 1-0 | Las Palmas C |
| 06/11/21 Spain Tercera Group 12 | Las Palmas C | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Union Sur Yaiza |
| 16/03/19 Spain Tercera Group 12 | Las Palmas C | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Union Sur Yaiza |
| 28/10/18 Spain Tercera Group 12 | Union Sur Yaiza | 0-0 | Las Palmas C |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 12
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD San Fernando | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Estrella CF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Las Palmas C | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Panaderia Pulido | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Mensajero | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Union de Tenerife | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | CF San Bartolome | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | CD Arcangel San Miguel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Lanzarote | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | UD Anaza | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Villa Sta Brigida | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | CD Marino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Tenerife C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Union Sur Yaiza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Llanos Aridane | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | SD Villaverde Norte | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | UD Playas de Sotavento | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | CD Laguna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Las Palmas C | Union Sur Yaiza |
|---|---|---|
| Panaderia Pulido | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| UD Telde | 4-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Las Palmas C (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Las Palmas C
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | UD Playas de Sotavento Spain Tercera Group 12 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | CD Arcangel San Miguel Spain Tercera Group 12 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | CD Atletico Paso Spain Tercera Group 12 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Tenisca Spain Tercera Group 12 |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/04 | Panaderia Pulido Spain Tercera Group 12 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Real Union de Tenerife Spain Tercera Group 12 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 11/04 | UD Tamaraceite Spain Tercera Group 12 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 31/03 | CD Herbania Spain Tercera Group 12 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/03 | Lanzarote Spain Tercera Group 12 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 15/03 | UD Telde Spain Tercera Group 12 |
3-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
Union Sur Yaiza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | CF San Bartolome Spain Tercera Group 12 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Panaderia Pulido Spain Tercera Group 12 |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 03/05 | UD Telde Spain Tercera Group 12 |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | CD Marino Spain Tercera Group 12 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 22/04 | Arucas CF Spain Tercera Group 12 |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | Mensajero Spain Tercera Group 12 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Tenerife C Spain Tercera Group 12 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 01/04 | CF San Bartolome Spain Tercera Group 12 |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 29/03 | UD San Fernando Spain Tercera Group 12 |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 14/03 | Villa Sta Brigida Spain Tercera Group 12 |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Las Palmas C vs Union Sur Yaiza?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Las Palmas C win (58%). Probabilities: Las Palmas C 58%, draw 25%, Union Sur Yaiza 17%.
How many goals are expected in Las Palmas C vs Union Sur Yaiza?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Las Palmas C 1.58 · Union Sur Yaiza 0.73), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas C vs Union Sur Yaiza?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.