Football · Costa Rica Primera Division Women · 07/11, 02:00
Prediction: Alajuelense (W) vs Moravia (W)
Team pages: Alajuelense (W) · Moravia (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.01Total
Alajuelense (W)3
Moravia (W)1
1X2
Alajuelense (W)
Draw
Moravia (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Alajuelense (W)
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Moravia (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alajuelense (W)
4–0
Moravia (W)
(4 last)
- Moravia (W)1-2Alajuelense (W)
- Alajuelense (W)6-0Moravia (W)
- Moravia (W)0-2Alajuelense (W)
- Alajuelense (W)2-0Moravia (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alajuelense (W) 1610 · Moravia (W) 1475
| Alajuelense (W) | Draw | Moravia (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 86% | 10% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alajuelense (W) (rating 1610 vs 1475).
- H2H favours Alajuelense (W): 4-0-0.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alajuelense (W) | Moravia (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.8 / 0.8 | 2.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.7 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.9 | 2.3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.4 / 0.1 | 1.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alajuelense (W) 4–0–0 Moravia (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/26 Costa Rica Primera Division Women | Moravia (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Alajuelense (W) |
| 27/03/26 Costa Rica Primera Division Women | Alajuelense (W) | 6-0 HT 3-0 | Moravia (W) |
| 07/02/26 Costa Rica Primera Division Women | Moravia (W) | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Alajuelense (W) |
| 27/07/25 Costa Rica Primera Division Women | Alajuelense (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Moravia (W) |
Standings · Costa Rica Primera Division Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alajuelense (W) | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 28 |
| 2 | Deportivo Saprissa (W) | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 16 | 26 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose (W) | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 49 | 20 | 25 |
| 4 | Dimas Escazu (W) | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 17 | 22 |
| 5 | Moravia (W) | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 20 | 15 |
| 6 | AD Chorotega (W) | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 52 | 10 |
| 7 | Carrillo FF (W) | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 38 | 8 |
| 8 | Municipal Pococi (W) | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 38 | 7 |
| 9 | Cartagines (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alajuelense (W) | Moravia (W) |
|---|---|---|
| AD Chorotega (W) | 5-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Deportivo Saprissa (W) | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Dimas Escazu (W) | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Sporting San Jose (W) | 4-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Municipal Pococi (W) | 6-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Carrillo FF (W) | 9-0 W | 6-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Alajuelense (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alajuelense (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | AD Chorotega (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/10 | Deportivo Saprissa (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 17/10 | Dimas Escazu (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 04/10 | Sporting San Jose (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
2-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 28/09 | Municipal Pococi (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
1-0 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/09 | Moravia (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 12/09 | Carrillo FF (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
6-0 | 9-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | AD Chorotega (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
3-0 | 7-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 29/08 | Dimas Escazu (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 20/08 | Deportivo Saprissa (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
Moravia (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | AD Chorotega (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
0-1 | 4-1 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 24/10 | Dimas Escazu (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 21/10 | Municipal Pococi (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/10 | Deportivo Saprissa (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 09/10 | Sporting San Jose (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 03/10 | Municipal Pococi (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 27/09 | Carrillo FF (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
2-0 | 6-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 18/09 | Alajuelense (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 12/09 | AD Chorotega (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 05/09 | Dimas Escazu (W) Costa Rica Primera Division Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alajuelense (W) vs Moravia (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Alajuelense (W) win (82%). Probabilities: Alajuelense (W) 82%, draw 12%, Moravia (W) 6%.
How many goals are expected in Alajuelense (W) vs Moravia (W)?
The model expects 4.01 goals (Alajuelense (W) 3 · Moravia (W) 1), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Alajuelense (W) vs Moravia (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.