Football · Spain Tercera Group 8 · 08/11, 17:00
Prediction: CDA Palencia vs At. Bembibre
Team pages: CDA Palencia · At. Bembibre
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.02Total
CDA Palencia1.81
At. Bembibre1.21
1X2
CDA Palencia
Draw
At. Bembibre
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
CDA Palencia
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
At. Bembibre
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CDA Palencia
4–1–1
At. Bembibre
(6 last)
- CDA Palencia4-1At. Bembibre
- At. Bembibre1-4CDA Palencia
- At. Bembibre0-3CDA Palencia
- CDA Palencia1-1At. Bembibre
- CDA Palencia1-0At. Bembibre
- At. Bembibre3-1CDA Palencia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CDA Palencia 1556 · At. Bembibre 1493
| CDA Palencia | Draw | At. Bembibre | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 25% | 24% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CDA Palencia (rating 1556 vs 1493).
- H2H favours CDA Palencia: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CDA Palencia | At. Bembibre | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 14/57/29% | 38/38/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.9 | 3.3 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CDA Palencia 4–1–1 At. Bembibre
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 8 | CDA Palencia | 4-1 HT 1-1 | At. Bembibre |
| 11/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 8 | At. Bembibre | 1-4 HT 1-2 | CDA Palencia |
| 19/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 8 | At. Bembibre | 0-3 HT 0-0 | CDA Palencia |
| 08/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 8 | CDA Palencia | 1-1 HT 0-0 | At. Bembibre |
| 24/03/24 Spain Tercera Group 8 | CDA Palencia | 1-0 HT 1-0 | At. Bembibre |
| 05/11/23 Spain Tercera Group 8 | At. Bembibre | 3-1 HT 2-1 | CDA Palencia |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 8
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristo Atletico | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
| 2 | Burgos Promesas | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 3 | 20 |
| 3 | Cultural Leonesa B | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | UD Santa Marta | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | CD Virgen Del Camino | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | At. Bembibre | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 15 |
| 7 | CDA Palencia | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 14 |
| 8 | Guijuelo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 13 |
| 9 | Almazan | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| 10 | CD Atletico Mansilles | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 12 |
| 11 | Arandina | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| 12 | Villaralbo | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 10 |
| 13 | Turegano CF | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 8 |
| 14 | CD Calasanz de Soria | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 7 |
| 15 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF B | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 5 |
| 16 | CD Colegios Diocesanos | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 5 |
| 17 | Salamanca B | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 4 |
| 18 | Mirandes B | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 3 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CDA Palencia | At. Bembibre |
|---|---|---|
| Cristo Atletico | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Mirandes B | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CDA Palencia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Cristo Atletico Spain Tercera Group 8 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 10 | L |
| 24/10 | Turegano CF Spain Tercera Group 8 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 17/10 | CD Calasanz Spain Tercera Group 8 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/10 | Salamanca B Spain Tercera Group 8 |
3-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 03/10 | Almazan Spain Tercera Group 8 |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 27/09 | UD Santa Marta Spain Tercera Group 8 |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 20/09 | Burgos Promesas Spain Tercera Group 8 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | Cultural Leonesa B Spain Tercera Group 8 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | Mirandes B Spain Tercera Group 8 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | At. Bembibre Spain Tercera Group 8 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
At. Bembibre
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | CD Colegios Diocesanos Spain Tercera Group 8 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 24/10 | Villaralbo Spain Tercera Group 8 |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/10 | Arandina Spain Tercera Group 8 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 10/10 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF B Spain Tercera Group 8 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 04/10 | CD Virgen Del Camino Spain Tercera Group 8 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 27/09 | Guijuelo Spain Tercera Group 8 |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 20/09 | CD Atletico Mansilles Spain Tercera Group 8 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Mirandes B Spain Tercera Group 8 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 05/09 | Cristo Atletico Spain Tercera Group 8 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | CDA Palencia Spain Tercera Group 8 |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CDA Palencia vs At. Bembibre?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CDA Palencia win (50%). Probabilities: CDA Palencia 50%, draw 25%, At. Bembibre 24%.
How many goals are expected in CDA Palencia vs At. Bembibre?
The model expects 3.02 goals (CDA Palencia 1.81 · At. Bembibre 1.21), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in CDA Palencia vs At. Bembibre?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.