Football · Spain Tercera Group 8 · 14/11, 17:00

Prediction: Cristo Atletico vs Burgos Promesas

Team pages: Cristo Atletico

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.94Total

Cristo Atletico1.22

Burgos Promesas0.72

1X2

47% 31% 22%

Cristo Atletico Draw Burgos Promesas

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Cristo Atletico 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWWWWD

Burgos Promesas 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDLWWL

Head-to-head

Cristo Atletico 4–1–1 Burgos Promesas (6 last)

Cristo Atletico0-1Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas2-2Cristo Atletico
Cristo Atletico3-0Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas1-2Cristo Atletico
Cristo Atletico2-1Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas0-2Cristo Atletico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cristo Atletico 1574 · Burgos Promesas 1547

	Cristo Atletico	Draw	Burgos Promesas
Our model	47%	33%	21%
Market	48%	30%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 1.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cristo Atletico: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cristo Atletico	Burgos Promesas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.4	1.5 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	71/14/14%	43/29/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 4.9	3.3 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.3	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.85▲	Bet365 1.85
X	3.20 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
2	3.90 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:07 +2’	1.83	3.20	3.90
13:03 +6’	1.85▲	3.00▼	4.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cristo Atletico 4–1–1 Burgos Promesas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 8	Cristo Atletico	0-1 HT 0-1	Burgos Promesas
08/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 8	Burgos Promesas	2-2 HT 1-2	Cristo Atletico
27/04/24 Spain Tercera Group 8	Cristo Atletico	3-0	Burgos Promesas
16/12/23 Spain Tercera Group 8	Burgos Promesas	1-2 HT 1-1	Cristo Atletico
23/04/23 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	Cristo Atletico	2-1 HT 1-1	Burgos Promesas
10/12/22 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	Burgos Promesas	0-2 HT 0-2	Cristo Atletico

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 8

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UD Santa Marta	10	7	2	1	18	6	23
2	Cristo Atletico	10	7	2	1	14	4	23
3	Cultural Leonesa B	10	6	3	1	14	6	21
4	Burgos Promesas	10	6	2	2	15	5	20
5	CDA Palencia	10	5	2	3	16	9	17
6	CD Virgen Del Camino	10	5	2	3	11	11	17
7	Almazan	10	4	4	2	17	15	16
8	At. Bembibre	10	4	3	3	11	11	15
9	Villaralbo	10	3	4	3	16	12	13
10	Guijuelo	9	4	1	4	14	10	13
11	CD Atletico Mansilles	9	3	4	2	12	10	13
12	Arandina	10	2	6	2	13	14	12
13	Turegano CF	10	2	5	3	12	13	11
14	Unionistas de Salamanca CF B	10	2	2	6	9	15	8
15	CD Calasanz de Soria	10	2	1	7	8	21	7
16	CD Colegios Diocesanos	10	1	3	6	8	18	6
17	Salamanca B	10	1	1	8	8	26	4
18	Mirandes B	10	0	3	7	2	12	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cristo Atletico	Burgos Promesas
Cultural Leonesa B	0-0 D	0-0 D
CDA Palencia	1-0 W	3-0 W
CD Colegios Diocesanos	2-0 W	3-0 W
Villaralbo	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Burgos Promesas (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cristo Atletico

LDWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Cultural Leonesa B Spain Tercera Group 8	0-0	0-0	0	8	D
31/10	CDA Palencia Spain Tercera Group 8	1-0	1-0	6	10	W
24/10	CD Colegios Diocesanos Spain Tercera Group 8	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
18/10	Villaralbo Spain Tercera Group 8	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
10/10	Arandina Spain Tercera Group 8	–	3-1	–	–	W
04/10	Unionistas de Salamanca CF B Spain Tercera Group 8	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
26/09	CD Virgen Del Camino Spain Tercera Group 8	–	1-0	–	–	W
20/09	Guijuelo Spain Tercera Group 8	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
12/09	CD Atletico Mansilles Spain Tercera Group 8	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	At. Bembibre Spain Tercera Group 8	0-1	0-2	9	7	L

Burgos Promesas

WWWDWDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Turegano CF Spain Tercera Group 8	0-2	0-2	14	2	L
31/10	CD Calasanz de Soria Spain Tercera Group 8	–	2-0	–	–	W
25/10	Salamanca B Spain Tercera Group 8	2-0	3-0	6	1	W
18/10	Almazan Spain Tercera Group 8	0-1	0-1	12	1	L
11/10	UD Santa Marta Spain Tercera Group 8	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Mirandes B Spain Tercera Group 8	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
27/09	Cultural Leonesa B Spain Tercera Group 8	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
20/09	CDA Palencia Spain Tercera Group 8	1-0	3-0	5	6	W
12/09	CD Colegios Diocesanos Spain Tercera Group 8	–	3-0	2	6	W
06/09	Villaralbo Spain Tercera Group 8	1-0	1-0	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cristo Atletico vs Burgos Promesas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cristo Atletico win (47%). Probabilities: Cristo Atletico 47%, draw 31%, Burgos Promesas 22%.

How many goals are expected in Cristo Atletico vs Burgos Promesas?

The model expects 1.94 goals (Cristo Atletico 1.22 · Burgos Promesas 0.72), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cristo Atletico vs Burgos Promesas?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.