Football · Spain Tercera Group 9 · 25/10, 17:30

Prediction: FC Marbelli vs Atletico Porcuna CF

Team pages: FC Marbelli · Atletico Porcuna CF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

FC Marbelli1.7

Atletico Porcuna CF0.8

1X2

58% 25% 17%

FC Marbelli Draw Atletico Porcuna CF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Marbelli 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDWWWWLL

Atletico Porcuna CF 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLLDW

Head-to-head

FC Marbelli 2–1–1 Atletico Porcuna CF (4 last)

FC Marbelli1-0Atletico Porcuna CF
Atletico Porcuna CF1-0FC Marbelli
Atletico Porcuna CF1-1FC Marbelli
FC Marbelli2-0Atletico Porcuna CF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Marbelli 1525 · Atletico Porcuna CF 1497

	FC Marbelli	Draw	Atletico Porcuna CF
Our model	58%	26%	16%
Market	59%	24%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Marbelli: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Marbelli	Atletico Porcuna CF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/50/17%	17/33/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.5	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.5	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.70

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.76
2	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.55 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:59 +5’	1.53	3.70	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:41 +23’	1.63	3.60	4.69
21:31 +35’	1.51▼	3.76▲	5.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Marbelli 2–1–1 Atletico Porcuna CF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 9	FC Marbelli	1-0	Atletico Porcuna CF
05/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 9	Atletico Porcuna CF	1-0	FC Marbelli
09/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 9	Atletico Porcuna CF	1-1	FC Marbelli
29/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 9	FC Marbelli	2-0	Atletico Porcuna CF

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 9

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Melilla	8	7	0	1	15	5	21
2	Almeria B	7	5	1	1	12	4	16
3	Arenas	7	4	3	0	15	7	15
4	Motril	7	4	3	0	11	5	15
5	FC Marbelli	7	4	1	2	8	7	13
6	UD San Pedro	7	4	0	3	9	10	12
7	Atletico Malagueno	7	3	2	2	13	7	11
8	Ciudad Torredonjimeno	7	3	2	2	10	7	11
9	Churriana de la Vega CF	7	3	1	3	13	10	10
10	Atletico Porcuna CF	7	3	1	3	9	15	10
11	Recreativo Granada	7	3	1	3	9	6	10
12	Alhaurino	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
13	UD Torre del Mar	7	2	1	4	6	8	7
14	CD Huetor Vega	7	1	3	3	10	14	6
15	Atletico Marbella	7	1	2	4	5	9	5
16	Atletico Mancha Real	7	1	2	4	5	11	5
17	Cantoria 2017	8	0	3	5	4	14	3
18	CD Malaga Juniors FC	7	0	0	7	5	18	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Marbelli	Atletico Porcuna CF
UD Torre del Mar	1-0 W	1-0 W
Recreativo Granada	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Porcuna CF (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Marbelli

DLWDWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	UD San Pedro Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-2	–	–	L
10/10	Alhaurino Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-2	–	–	L
04/10	CD Malaga Juniors FC Spain Tercera Group 9	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
27/09	UD Torre del Mar Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
20/09	CD Huetor Vega Spain Tercera Group 9	2-0	3-1	1	4	W
13/09	Ciudad Torredonjimeno Spain Tercera Group 9	0-1	2-1	10	6	W
05/09	Atletico Mancha Real Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/05	Ciudad Torredonjimeno Spain Tercera Group 9	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	Recreativo Granada Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
26/04	CD Huetor Vega Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	1-1	3	4	D

Atletico Porcuna CF

WWLWLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Melilla Spain Tercera Group 9	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/10	Motril Spain Tercera Group 9	1-1	1-1	3	8	D
04/10	Churriana de la Vega CF Spain Tercera Group 9	–	2-3	–	–	L
27/09	Almeria B Spain Tercera Group 9	0-3	0-4	7	7	L
20/09	Recreativo Granada Spain Tercera Group 9	0-1	2-1	1	6	W
12/09	Atletico Malagueno Spain Tercera Group 9	0-1	1-6	3	2	L
06/09	Cantoria 2017 Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-0	–	–	W
10/05	Motril Spain Tercera Group 9	1-1	1-2	2	1	L
03/05	UD Torre del Mar Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/04	CD El Palo Spain Tercera Group 9	2-0	2-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Marbelli vs Atletico Porcuna CF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Marbelli win (58%). Probabilities: FC Marbelli 58%, draw 25%, Atletico Porcuna CF 17%.

How many goals are expected in FC Marbelli vs Atletico Porcuna CF?

The model expects 2.49 goals (FC Marbelli 1.7 · Atletico Porcuna CF 0.8), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Marbelli vs Atletico Porcuna CF?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.