Football · Indonesia Super League · 25/10, 09:30

Prediction: Arema FC vs Dewa United FC

Team pages: Arema FC · Dewa United FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Arema FC1.28

Dewa United FC1.72

1X2

28% 26% 47%

Arema FC Draw Dewa United FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Arema FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDDDLL

Dewa United FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLLWDWWDW

Head-to-head

Arema FC 1–1–4 Dewa United FC (6 last)

Dewa United FC2-0Arema FC
Arema FC1-2Dewa United FC
Dewa United FC2-0Arema FC
Arema FC0-0Dewa United FC
Arema FC2-1Dewa United FC
Dewa United FC1-0Arema FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arema FC 1503 · Dewa United FC 1565

	Arema FC	Draw	Dewa United FC
Our model	27%	26%	47%
Market	28%	25%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dewa United FC (rating 1503 vs 1565).
H2H favours Dewa United FC: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arema FC	Dewa United FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 2	1.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.3	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	2.2 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.60

21.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.45 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.64
2	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 1.99

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
07:11 +5’	3.30	3.60	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:12 +11’	3.41	3.60	1.97
15:16 +14’	3.45▲	3.64▲	1.99▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Arema FC 1–1–4 Dewa United FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/01/26 Indonesia Super League	Dewa United FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Arema FC
13/09/25 Indonesia Super League	Arema FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Dewa United FC
11/01/25 Indonesia Super League	Dewa United FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Arema FC
12/08/24 Indonesia Super League	Arema FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Dewa United FC
02/11/23 Indonesia Super League	Arema FC	2-1 HT 0-0	Dewa United FC
02/07/23 Indonesia Super League	Dewa United FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Arema FC

Standings · Indonesia Super League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Persija Jakarta	6	5	0	1	15	5	15
2	Dewa United FC	6	4	2	0	12	6	14
3	Madura United	6	4	1	1	11	7	13
4	Bali United	6	4	0	2	19	7	12
5	Persita Tangerang	5	3	2	0	11	8	11
6	Persib Bandung	6	3	1	2	9	7	10
7	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	11	8	10
8	Persik Kediri	6	3	1	2	7	4	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	2	2	2	9	12	8
11	Java United FC	6	2	2	2	9	9	6
12	Arema FC	6	1	3	2	12	14	6
13	Borneo FC	5	2	0	3	4	6	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	1	2	3	6	12	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	1	1	4	9	11	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng FC	6	1	1	4	3	12	2
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	6	0	1	5	3	11	1
18	Persijap Jepara	6	0	0	6	2	14	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arema FC	Dewa United FC
Bhayangkara FC	2-2 D	2-2 D
Persik Kediri	1-1 D	1-0 W
PSBS Biak	5-2 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Dewa United FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arema FC

LWWWWDDDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Persija Jakarta Indonesia Super League	0-2	1-5	0	0	L
17/10	Garudayaksa Indonesia Super League	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
10/10	Bhayangkara FC Indonesia Super League	0-2	2-2	2	4	D
18/09	Persik Kediri Indonesia Super League	1-1	1-1	7	5	D
13/09	PSM Makassar Indonesia Super League	2-1	3-3	1	4	D
04/09	Isenmulang Kalteng FC Indonesia Super League	3-0	4-0	10	5	W
22/05	PSIM Yogyakarta Indonesia Super League	1-0	3-1	5	6	W
15/05	PSBS Biak Indonesia Super League	4-2	5-2	–	–	W
09/05	PSM Makassar Indonesia Super League	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
03/05	Persik Kediri Indonesia Super League	0-3	2-3	10	6	L

Dewa United FC

WWLLWDWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Persijap Jepara Indonesia Super League	0-0	2-0	14	3	W
11/10	Persib Bandung Indonesia Super League	2-0	2-2	4	1	D
20/09	PSS Sleman Indonesia Super League	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
16/09	Borneo FC Indonesia Super League	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
11/09	Bhayangkara FC Indonesia Super League	1-2	2-2	4	5	D
05/09	Persik Kediri Indonesia Super League	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
22/05	Bali United Indonesia Super League	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
16/05	Persis Solo Indonesia Super League	0-0	0-1	9	6	L
08/05	PSBS Biak Indonesia Super League	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
03/05	Semen Padang Indonesia Super League	1-0	1-0	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arema FC vs Dewa United FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dewa United FC win (47%). Probabilities: Arema FC 28%, draw 26%, Dewa United FC 47%.

How many goals are expected in Arema FC vs Dewa United FC?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Arema FC 1.28 · Dewa United FC 1.72), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Arema FC vs Dewa United FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.