Football · England Super League Women · 20/09, 15:00
Prediction: Brighton (W) vs Aston Villa (W)
Team pages: Brighton (W) · Aston Villa (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.26Total
Brighton (W)2.01
Aston Villa (W)1.25
1X2
Brighton (W)
Draw
Aston Villa (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Brighton (W)
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Aston Villa (W)
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Brighton (W)
1–1–4
Aston Villa (W)
(6 last)
- Aston Villa (W)2-1Brighton (W)
- Brighton (W)0-0Aston Villa (W)
- Aston Villa (W)3-1Brighton (W)
- Aston Villa (W)3-2Brighton (W)
- Brighton (W)4-2Aston Villa (W)
- Brighton (W)0-1Aston Villa (W)
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brighton (W) (rating 1471 vs 1413).
- H2H favours Aston Villa (W): 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brighton (W) | Aston Villa (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.6 | 1.5 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brighton (W) 1–1–4 Aston Villa (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/26 England Super League Women | Aston Villa (W) | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Brighton (W) |
| 07/09/25 England Super League Women | Brighton (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Aston Villa (W) |
| 10/05/25 England Super League Women | Aston Villa (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Brighton (W) |
| 08/02/25 England FA Cup Women | Aston Villa (W) | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Brighton (W) |
| 05/10/24 England Super League Women | Brighton (W) | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Aston Villa (W) |
| 04/05/24 England Super League Women | Brighton (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Aston Villa (W) |
Standings · England Super League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Chelsea (W) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Liverpool (W) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Tottenham (W) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Arsenal (W) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Crystal Palace (W) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | London City Lionesses (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 8 | Everton (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | West Ham (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 10 | Brighton (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 11 | Birmingham (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 12 | Aston Villa (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 13 | Charlton (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 | Man Utd (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Brighton (W) | Aston Villa (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal (W) | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Tottenham (W) | 1-2 L | 3-7 L |
| Man City (W) | 3-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Leicester (W) | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Liverpool (W) | 0-0 D | 1-4 L |
| Chelsea (W) | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| West Ham (W) | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 1 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Brighton (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brighton (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Birmingham (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 06/09 | Arsenal (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Tottenham (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 06/05 | Arsenal (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Man Utd (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Man City (W) England Super League Women |
1-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 29/03 | Leicester (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 22/03 | Liverpool (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 18/03 | Chelsea (W) England Super League Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 08/02 | West Ham (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
Aston Villa (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Chelsea (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | London City Lionesses (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Arsenal (W) England Super League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 04/05 | West Ham (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 29/03 | Chelsea (W) England Super League Women |
3-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 22/03 | Leicester (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 15/03 | Man City (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 15/02 | Tottenham (W) England Super League Women |
1-3 | 3-7 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 08/02 | Liverpool (W) England Super League Women |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 01/02 | Everton (W) England Super League Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brighton (W) vs Aston Villa (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Brighton (W) win (54%). Probabilities: Brighton (W) 54%, draw 23%, Aston Villa (W) 23%.
How many goals are expected in Brighton (W) vs Aston Villa (W)?
The model expects 3.26 goals (Brighton (W) 2.01 · Aston Villa (W) 1.25), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Brighton (W) vs Aston Villa (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.