Football · Spain Tercera Group 18 · 11/10, 18:00

Prediction: Toledo vs Huracan Balazote

Team pages: Toledo · Huracan Balazote

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Toledo2.18

Huracan Balazote0.65

1X2

72% 19% 9%

Toledo Draw Huracan Balazote

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Toledo 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLDWDLWW

Huracan Balazote 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Toledo 3–3–0 Huracan Balazote (6 last)

Huracan Balazote0-1Toledo
Toledo2-0Huracan Balazote
Toledo1-0Huracan Balazote
Huracan Balazote0-0Toledo
Toledo1-1Huracan Balazote
Huracan Balazote0-0Toledo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toledo 1547 · Huracan Balazote 1390

	Toledo	Draw	Huracan Balazote
Our model	72%	19%	9%
Market	72%	18%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toledo (rating 1547 vs 1390).
H2H favours Toledo: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toledo	Huracan Balazote
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	0.7 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	33/0/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 5.2	3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.2	5.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.00

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.25▲	Bet365 1.25
X	5.20 → 5.00▼	Pinn 5.52
2	10.00 → 9.50▼	Pinn 12.03 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:45 +5’	1.22	5.20	10.00
21:21 +4’	1.25▲	5.00▼	9.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:27 +179’	1.19	5.52	12.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Toledo 3–3–0 Huracan Balazote

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 18	Huracan Balazote	0-1 HT 0-0	Toledo
11/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Toledo	2-0 HT 1-0	Huracan Balazote
11/05/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Toledo	1-0 HT 0-0	Huracan Balazote
12/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Huracan Balazote	0-0	Toledo
18/02/24 Spain Tercera Group 18	Toledo	1-1 HT 0-0	Huracan Balazote
01/10/23 Spain Tercera Group 18	Huracan Balazote	0-0 HT 0-0	Toledo

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 18

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Manchego CR	5	5	0	0	8	2	15
2	Villarrobledo	5	3	2	0	8	1	11
3	Illescas	5	3	2	0	7	3	11
4	CD Torrijos	5	3	2	0	6	2	11
5	Toledo	5	3	1	1	12	6	10
6	Almansa	6	3	1	2	11	6	10
7	CD Tarancon	6	3	1	2	11	7	10
8	CD Villa	5	3	0	2	6	4	9
9	Marchamalo	6	2	2	2	11	10	8
10	CD Villacanas	5	2	1	2	6	4	7
11	CD Noblejas	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
12	AD San Clemente	5	1	2	2	7	11	5
13	CD Quintanar del Rey	6	1	2	3	6	11	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	0	4	2	3	6	4
15	La Solana	5	1	0	4	4	9	3
16	Villarrubia CF	5	0	3	2	3	9	3
17	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	6	0	2	4	6	13	2
18	Huracan Balazote	5	0	0	5	4	14	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toledo	Huracan Balazote
CD Villacanas	2-1 W	0-3 L
Villarrubia CF	1-1 D	0-1 L
CD Pedroneras	0-1 L	0-2 L
Calvo Sotelo	0-2 L	2-1 W
AD San Clemente	4-0 W	3-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Toledo (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toledo

WWLLDWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-1	–	–	W
27/09	La Solana Spain Tercera Group 18	2-0	4-0	11	4	W
19/09	CD Noblejas Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
12/09	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	4-2	7	3	W
17/05	Albacete B Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
10/05	CD Pedroneras Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-1	–	–	L
03/05	Calvo Sotelo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-2	–	–	L
26/04	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	–	4-0	–	–	W
18/04	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	4-0	4	7	W

Huracan Balazote

DWLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	–	3-5	–	–	L
27/09	Almansa Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	1-3	1	6	L
20/09	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-1	3	8	L
13/09	Marchamalo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
05/09	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-3	–	–	L
09/05	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-1	–	–	L
03/05	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-3	–	–	L
26/04	CD Pedroneras Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-2	–	–	L
19/04	Calvo Sotelo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/04	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toledo vs Huracan Balazote?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Toledo win (72%). Probabilities: Toledo 72%, draw 19%, Huracan Balazote 9%.

How many goals are expected in Toledo vs Huracan Balazote?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Toledo 2.18 · Huracan Balazote 0.65), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Toledo vs Huracan Balazote?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.