Football · Spain Tercera Group 18 · 11/10, 12:00

Prediction: Illescas vs La Solana

Team pages: Illescas · La Solana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.12Total

Illescas1.49

La Solana0.62

1X2

59% 25% 16%

Illescas Draw La Solana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Illescas 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DLWDDWDDWW

La Solana 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Illescas 3–1–2 La Solana (6 last)

La Solana1-0Illescas
Illescas0-0La Solana
Illescas3-0La Solana
La Solana0-4Illescas
Illescas1-0La Solana
La Solana2-0Illescas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Illescas 1516 · La Solana 1463

	Illescas	Draw	La Solana
Our model	57%	28%	14%
Market	60%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Illescas (rating 1516 vs 1463).
H2H favours Illescas: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Illescas	La Solana
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.5	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/50/33%	33/11/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 5	1.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.5 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.90

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 6.05 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:54 +45’	1.50	3.90	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:21 +198’	1.49	3.70	6.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Illescas 3–1–2 La Solana

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 18	La Solana	1-0 HT 1-0	Illescas
07/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Illescas	0-0 HT 0-0	La Solana
06/04/23 Spain Tercera Group 18	Illescas	3-0 HT 2-0	La Solana
10/12/22 Spain Tercera Group 18	La Solana	0-4	Illescas
09/05/21 Spain Tercera Group 18	Illescas	1-0 HT 0-0	La Solana
04/04/21 Spain Tercera Group 18	La Solana	2-0	Illescas

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 18

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Manchego CR	5	5	0	0	8	2	15
2	Villarrobledo	5	3	2	0	8	1	11
3	Illescas	5	3	2	0	7	3	11
4	CD Torrijos	5	3	2	0	6	2	11
5	Toledo	5	3	1	1	12	6	10
6	Almansa	6	3	1	2	11	6	10
7	CD Tarancon	6	3	1	2	11	7	10
8	CD Villa	5	3	0	2	6	4	9
9	Marchamalo	6	2	2	2	11	10	8
10	CD Villacanas	5	2	1	2	6	4	7
11	CD Noblejas	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
12	AD San Clemente	5	1	2	2	7	11	5
13	CD Quintanar del Rey	6	1	2	3	6	11	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	0	4	2	3	6	4
15	La Solana	5	1	0	4	4	9	3
16	Villarrubia CF	5	0	3	2	3	9	3
17	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	6	0	2	4	6	13	2
18	Huracan Balazote	5	0	0	5	4	14	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Illescas	La Solana
CD Manchego CR	0-0 D	0-1 L
Villarrobledo	0-0 D	0-1 L
Toledo	1-1 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Illescas (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Illescas

DLWDDWDDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	CD Noblejas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-1	–	–	W
27/09	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
20/09	CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
13/09	Socuéllamos Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-0	–	–	D
05/09	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-0	–	–	W
10/05	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
03/05	Villarrobledo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-0	–	–	D
25/04	Albacete B Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-0	3	12	W
19/04	La Solana Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-1	4	9	L
11/04	Toledo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	1-1	6	9	D

La Solana

LWDWLLLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Villarrobledo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
27/09	Toledo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-2	0-4	4	4	L
19/09	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	2-0	4-0	4	5	W
13/09	Almansa Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-3	11	1	L
05/09	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
10/05	Calvo Sotelo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
03/05	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	4-1	8	2	W
25/04	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
19/04	Illescas Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	1-0	4	9	W
11/04	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Illescas vs La Solana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Illescas win (59%). Probabilities: Illescas 59%, draw 25%, La Solana 16%.

How many goals are expected in Illescas vs La Solana?

The model expects 2.12 goals (Illescas 1.49 · La Solana 0.62), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Illescas vs La Solana?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.