Football · Spain Tercera Group 18 · 25/10, 12:00

Prediction: Illescas vs Huracan Balazote

Team pages: Illescas · Huracan Balazote

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Illescas1.69

Huracan Balazote0.66

1X2

62% 24% 14%

Illescas Draw Huracan Balazote

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Illescas 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWDDWWWL

Huracan Balazote 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Illescas 2–2 Huracan Balazote (4 last)

Illescas0-1Huracan Balazote
Huracan Balazote1-0Illescas
Illescas2-0Huracan Balazote
Huracan Balazote0-1Illescas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Illescas 1502 · Huracan Balazote 1412

	Illescas	Draw	Huracan Balazote
Our model	61%	26%	13%
Market	63%	22%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Illescas (rating 1502 vs 1412).
Cards-heavy: 12.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Illescas	Huracan Balazote
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.6 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/80/0%	25/0/75%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 4.6	2.3 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.4 / 0.2	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.10

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.41
2	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 8.11 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:28 +10’	1.42	4.10	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:28 +254’	1.35	4.31	7.67
03:15 +50’	1.34▼	4.30▼	7.76▲
05:41 +23’	1.34▼	4.32▲	7.81▲
10:04 +60’	1.35▲	4.41▲	8.11▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Illescas 2–0–2 Huracan Balazote

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 18	Illescas	0-1 HT 0-1	Huracan Balazote
16/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Huracan Balazote	1-0	Illescas
27/03/22 Spain Tercera Group 18	Illescas	2-0 HT 0-0	Huracan Balazote
28/11/21 Spain Tercera Group 18	Huracan Balazote	0-1	Illescas

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 18

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Manchego CR	7	6	0	1	10	5	18
2	CD Torrijos	7	4	2	1	10	4	14
3	Illescas	7	4	2	1	11	7	14
4	CD Tarancon	8	4	2	2	14	9	14
5	Villarrobledo	7	3	4	0	9	2	13
6	CD Noblejas	8	4	1	3	14	13	13
7	Toledo	7	4	1	2	15	8	13
8	CD Villa	7	4	0	3	8	8	12
9	Almansa	7	3	2	2	12	7	11
10	CD Villacanas	7	3	2	2	10	7	11
11	Marchamalo	7	3	2	2	12	10	11
12	AD San Clemente	7	2	3	2	11	13	9
13	Villarrubia CF	8	1	4	3	9	12	7
14	La Solana	7	2	0	5	6	10	6
15	CD Quintanar del Rey	7	1	2	4	7	13	5
16	Socuéllamos	7	0	4	3	3	7	4
17	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	8	0	2	6	7	21	2
18	Huracan Balazote	7	0	1	6	6	18	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Illescas	Huracan Balazote
CD Villacanas	3-4 L	0-3 L
Villarrubia CF	2-0 W	0-1 L
CD Tarancon	1-0 W	0-3 L
CD Manchego CR	0-0 D	0-1 L
Villarrobledo	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Illescas (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Illescas

WDDWDDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	3-4	–	–	L
11/10	La Solana Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-0	3	10	W
03/10	CD Noblejas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-1	–	–	W
27/09	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
20/09	CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
13/09	Socuéllamos Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-0	–	–	D
05/09	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-0	–	–	W
10/05	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
03/05	Villarrobledo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-0	–	–	D
25/04	Albacete B Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-0	3	12	W

Huracan Balazote

LLLLLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Villarrobledo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/10	Toledo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-2	1-3	1	4	L
04/10	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	–	3-5	–	–	L
27/09	Almansa Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	1-3	1	6	L
20/09	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-1	3	8	L
13/09	Marchamalo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
05/09	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-3	–	–	L
09/05	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-1	–	–	L
03/05	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-3	–	–	L
26/04	CD Pedroneras Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Illescas vs Huracan Balazote?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Illescas win (62%). Probabilities: Illescas 62%, draw 24%, Huracan Balazote 14%.

How many goals are expected in Illescas vs Huracan Balazote?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Illescas 1.69 · Huracan Balazote 0.66), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Illescas vs Huracan Balazote?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.