Football · Bolivia Copa Division Profesional · 09/09, 21:00

Prediction: Real Oruro vs Nacional Potosi

Team pages: Real Oruro · Nacional Potosi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Real Oruro1.5

Nacional Potosi1.69

1X2

33% 25% 41%

Real Oruro Draw Nacional Potosi

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Oruro 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDWDLDLL

Nacional Potosi 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Real Oruro 3–1–1 Nacional Potosi (5 last)

Nacional Potosi1-4Real Oruro
Real Oruro1-2Nacional Potosi
Nacional Potosi0-0Real Oruro
Real Oruro1-0Nacional Potosi
Nacional Potosi2-3Real Oruro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Oruro 1460 · Nacional Potosi 1529

	Real Oruro	Draw	Nacional Potosi
Our model	33%	25%	41%
Market	33%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional Potosi (rating 1460 vs 1529).
H2H favours Real Oruro: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Oruro	Nacional Potosi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.3	5.7 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.60

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:14 +4’	2.75	3.60	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Oruro 3–1–1 Nacional Potosi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/07/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Nacional Potosi	1-4 HT 0-2	Real Oruro
11/12/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Real Oruro	1-2 HT 1-2	Nacional Potosi
27/10/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Nacional Potosi	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Oruro
11/10/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Real Oruro	1-0 HT 0-0	Nacional Potosi
15/07/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Nacional Potosi	2-3 HT 2-1	Real Oruro

Standings · Bolivia Copa Division Profesional · Copa Bolivia 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Always Ready	2	2	0	5	2	6
2	Nacional Potosi	1	1	0	5	1	3
3	Real Tomayapo	2	1	1	4	5	3
4	Real Oruro	2	0	2	3	8	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Oruro

DWWDWDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	GV San Jose Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	1-2	1-4	2	4	L
20/08	Always Ready Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	1-2	2-4	2	7	L
26/11	Blooming Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	1-0	2-2	8	9	D
19/11	Blooming Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
08/11	GV San Jose Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-2	2-2	3	8	D
29/10	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
27/10	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
22/10	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	2-1	2-1	1	6	W
11/10	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
06/10	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	3	12	D

Nacional Potosi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	1-0	5-1	5	3	W
23/12	Bolivar Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	2-1	4-1	3	8	W
20/12	Bolivar Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-2	0-2	8	7	L
18/12	The Strongest Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
17/12	The Strongest Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	2-1	2-1	4	7	W
26/11	GV San Jose Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-3	1-3	5	7	L
18/11	GV San Jose Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	2-0	3-0	2	6	W
15/11	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	1	7	D
12/11	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	1-1	3-1	7	6	W
09/11	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	2-0	2-1	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Oruro vs Nacional Potosi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nacional Potosi win (41%). Probabilities: Real Oruro 33%, draw 25%, Nacional Potosi 41%.

How many goals are expected in Real Oruro vs Nacional Potosi?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Real Oruro 1.5 · Nacional Potosi 1.69), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Oruro vs Nacional Potosi?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.