Football · Andorra Premier Division · 06/09, 20:00
Prediction: Penya Encarnada vs AC d'Escaldes
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.33Total
Penya Encarnada0.68
AC d'Escaldes1.65
1X2
Penya Encarnada
Draw
AC d'Escaldes
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Penya Encarnada
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
AC d'Escaldes
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Penya Encarnada
0–6
AC d'Escaldes
(6 last)
- AC d'Escaldes2-0Penya Encarnada
- AC d'Escaldes2-0Penya Encarnada
- Penya Encarnada0-2AC d'Escaldes
- AC d'Escaldes1-0Penya Encarnada
- AC d'Escaldes6-1Penya Encarnada
- Penya Encarnada1-2AC d'Escaldes
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Penya Encarnada 1450 · AC d'Escaldes 1527
| Penya Encarnada | Draw | AC d'Escaldes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 26% | 60% |
| Market | 16% | 21% | 62% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AC d'Escaldes (rating 1450 vs 1527).
- H2H favours AC d'Escaldes: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Penya Encarnada | AC d'Escaldes | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 11/56/33% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.4 / 1.6 | 3.6 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.2 | 6.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Penya Encarnada 0–0–6 AC d'Escaldes
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Andorra Premier Division | AC d'Escaldes | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Penya Encarnada |
| 14/12/25 Andorra Premier Division | AC d'Escaldes | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Penya Encarnada |
| 01/11/25 Andorra Premier Division | Penya Encarnada | 0-2 HT 0-0 | AC d'Escaldes |
| 30/03/25 Andorra Premier Division | AC d'Escaldes | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Penya Encarnada |
| 15/12/24 Andorra Premier Division | AC d'Escaldes | 6-1 HT 2-0 | Penya Encarnada |
| 07/04/24 Andorra Premier Division | Penya Encarnada | 1-2 HT 0-1 | AC d'Escaldes |
Standings · Andorra Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AC d'Escaldes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CE Carroi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CE Casa de Portugal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CF Esperança d'Andorra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Ordino | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Penya Encarnada | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Santa Coloma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SC Escaldes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Penya Encarnada | AC d'Escaldes |
|---|---|---|
| FC Rangers | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| FC Ordino | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| UE Santa Coloma | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| CF Esperança d'Andorra | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| FC Santa Coloma | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| CE Carroi | 0-0 D | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 2 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Penya Encarnada (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Penya Encarnada
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05 | AC d'Escaldes Andorra Premier Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | FC Rangers Andorra Premier Division |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | FC Ordino Andorra Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | UE Santa Coloma Andorra Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 13/04 | CF Esperança d'Andorra Andorra Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 21/03 | FC Santa Coloma Andorra Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 01/03 | Inter Club d'Escaldes Andorra Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 22/02 | CE Carroi Andorra Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 14/02 | Inter Club d'Escaldes Andorra Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 07/02 | UE Santa Coloma Andorra Premier Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
AC d'Escaldes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05 | Penya Encarnada Andorra Premier Division |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Inter Club d'Escaldes Andorra Premier Division |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | CE Carroi Andorra Premier Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | FC Rangers Andorra Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 12 | L |
| 22/03 | FC Ordino Andorra Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 08/03 | UE Santa Coloma Andorra Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 11 | D |
| 28/02 | CF Esperança d'Andorra Andorra Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 22/02 | FC Santa Coloma Andorra Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 14/02 | FC Rangers Andorra Premier Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 08/02 | FC Santa Coloma Andorra Premier Division |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 9 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Penya Encarnada vs AC d'Escaldes?
According to our model, the most likely result is an AC d'Escaldes win (61%). Probabilities: Penya Encarnada 15%, draw 24%, AC d'Escaldes 61%.
How many goals are expected in Penya Encarnada vs AC d'Escaldes?
The model expects 2.33 goals (Penya Encarnada 0.68 · AC d'Escaldes 1.65), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Penya Encarnada vs AC d'Escaldes?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.