Football · Andorra Premier Division · 13/09, 20:00

Prediction: FC Santa Coloma vs Penya Encarnada

Team pages: FC Santa Coloma · Penya Encarnada

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

FC Santa Coloma1.86

Penya Encarnada0.84

1X2

61% 22% 16%

FC Santa Coloma Draw Penya Encarnada

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Santa Coloma 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWDLLW

Penya Encarnada 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLWLLD

Head-to-head

FC Santa Coloma 6–0 Penya Encarnada (6 last)

Penya Encarnada0-1FC Santa Coloma
Penya Encarnada0-6FC Santa Coloma
FC Santa Coloma1-0Penya Encarnada
FC Santa Coloma1-0Penya Encarnada
Penya Encarnada0-1FC Santa Coloma
FC Santa Coloma2-1Penya Encarnada

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Santa Coloma 1539 · Penya Encarnada 1433

	FC Santa Coloma	Draw	Penya Encarnada
Our model	60%	24%	15%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Santa Coloma (rating 1539 vs 1433).
H2H favours FC Santa Coloma: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Santa Coloma	Penya Encarnada
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.7	0.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	0.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/56/22%	11/56/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.3	0.3 / 1.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.33

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 1 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:38 +9’	1.44	4.33	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Santa Coloma 6–0–0 Penya Encarnada

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Andorra Premier Division	Penya Encarnada	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Santa Coloma
30/11/25 Andorra Premier Division	Penya Encarnada	0-6 HT 0-1	FC Santa Coloma
22/10/25 Andorra Premier Division	FC Santa Coloma	1-0 HT 0-0	Penya Encarnada
13/04/25 Andorra Premier Division	FC Santa Coloma	1-0 HT 0-0	Penya Encarnada
02/02/25 Andorra Premier Division	Penya Encarnada	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Santa Coloma
06/10/24 Andorra Premier Division	FC Santa Coloma	2-1 HT 1-0	Penya Encarnada

Standings · Andorra Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Santa Coloma	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
2	FC Ordino	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	CF Esperança d'Andorra	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
3	Inter Club d'Escaldes	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
5	AC d'Escaldes	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	CE Casa de Portugal	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Penya Encarnada	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	FC Rangers	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	SC Escaldes	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
10	CE Carroi	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Santa Coloma	Penya Encarnada
CE Carroi	3-0 W	0-0 D
FC Rangers	0-2 L	1-2 L
FC Ordino	0-1 L	1-0 W
UE Santa Coloma	0-0 D	0-2 L
CF Esperança d'Andorra	4-0 W	1-0 W
Inter Club d'Escaldes	3-2 W	1-2 L
AC d'Escaldes	3-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Santa Coloma (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Santa Coloma

LWWWWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	CE Carroi Andorra Premier Division	1-0	3-0	9	6	W
16/05	FC Rangers Andorra Premier Division	0-2	0-2	8	5	L
10/05	FC Ordino Andorra Premier Division	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
25/04	UE Santa Coloma Andorra Premier Division	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
19/04	CF Esperança d'Andorra Andorra Premier Division	0-0	4-0	8	8	W
21/03	Penya Encarnada Andorra Premier Division	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
08/03	Inter Club d'Escaldes Andorra Premier Division	0-1	3-2	4	12	W
01/03	CE Carroi Andorra Premier Division	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
22/02	AC d'Escaldes Andorra Premier Division	1-0	3-0	5	10	W
15/02	FC Ordino Andorra Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L

Penya Encarnada

LDLLWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	AC d'Escaldes Andorra Premier Division	0-0	1-1	2	9	D
17/05	AC d'Escaldes Andorra Premier Division	0-2	0-2	0	4	L
10/05	FC Rangers Andorra Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/04	FC Ordino Andorra Premier Division	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
18/04	UE Santa Coloma Andorra Premier Division	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
13/04	CF Esperança d'Andorra Andorra Premier Division	1-0	1-0	1	8	W
21/03	FC Santa Coloma Andorra Premier Division	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
01/03	Inter Club d'Escaldes Andorra Premier Division	0-0	1-2	1	7	L
22/02	CE Carroi Andorra Premier Division	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
14/02	Inter Club d'Escaldes Andorra Premier Division	0-1	0-1	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Santa Coloma vs Penya Encarnada?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Santa Coloma win (61%). Probabilities: FC Santa Coloma 61%, draw 22%, Penya Encarnada 16%.

How many goals are expected in FC Santa Coloma vs Penya Encarnada?

The model expects 2.7 goals (FC Santa Coloma 1.86 · Penya Encarnada 0.84), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Santa Coloma vs Penya Encarnada?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.