Football · Costa Rica Primera Division · 10/08, 02:00
Prediction: Herediano vs Alajuelense
Team pages: Herediano · Alajuelense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.99Total
Herediano1.06
Alajuelense0.93
1X2
Herediano
Draw
Alajuelense
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Herediano
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Alajuelense
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Herediano
3–1–2
Alajuelense
(6 last)
- Alajuelense0-1Herediano
- Herediano2-1Alajuelense
- Alajuelense1-1Herediano
- Herediano1-3Alajuelense
- Alajuelense0-1Herediano
- Herediano0-1Alajuelense
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Herediano 1569 · Alajuelense 1562
| Herediano | Draw | Alajuelense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 34% | 30% |
| Market | 39% | 29% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.99 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Herediano: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Herediano | Alajuelense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 1.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.7 | 3 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Herediano 3–1–2 Alajuelense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/26 Costa Rica Super Cup | Alajuelense | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Herediano |
| 22/03/26 Costa Rica Primera Division | Herediano | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Alajuelense |
| 08/02/26 Costa Rica Primera Division | Alajuelense | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Herediano |
| 17/10/25 Costa Rica Primera Division | Herediano | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Alajuelense |
| 11/08/25 Costa Rica Primera Division | Alajuelense | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Herediano |
| 21/07/25 Costa Rica Cup | Herediano | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Alajuelense |
Standings · Costa Rica Primera Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Cartagines | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Herediano | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Alajuelense | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Escorpiones de Belen FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Municipal Perez Zeledon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting San Jose | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 8 | Inter San Carlos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 9 | Puntarenas | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 10 | AD San Carlos | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Herediano | Alajuelense |
|---|---|---|
| Puntarenas | 1-1 D | 5-2 W |
| Deportivo Saprissa | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Herediano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Alianza FC CONCACAF Central American Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 03/08 | Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 31/07 | CD Marathon CONCACAF Central American Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 24/07 | Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 18/07 | Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Super Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 13/07 | Alajuelense Costa Rica Super Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 14/05 | Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Cartagines Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Cartagines Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 9 | W |
Alajuelense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Diriangen CONCACAF Central American Cup |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 30/07 | Xelaju CONCACAF Central American Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 13/07 | Herediano Costa Rica Super Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 27/04 | Municipal Liberia Costa Rica Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Puntarenas Costa Rica Primera Division |
3-1 | 5-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 20/04 | Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 12/04 | Sporting San Jose Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 06/04 | Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Herediano vs Alajuelense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Herediano win (38%). Probabilities: Herediano 38%, draw 31%, Alajuelense 31%.
How many goals are expected in Herediano vs Alajuelense?
The model expects 1.99 goals (Herediano 1.06 · Alajuelense 0.93), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Herediano vs Alajuelense?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.