Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 23/08, 01:30

Prediction: Nacional Potosi vs Independiente Petrolero

Team pages: Nacional Potosi · Independiente Petrolero

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Nacional Potosi1.99

Independiente Petrolero1.01

1X2

59% 23% 18%

Nacional Potosi Draw Independiente Petrolero

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Nacional Potosi 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWLLLW

Independiente Petrolero 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLWDWW

Head-to-head

Nacional Potosi 4–1–1 Independiente Petrolero (6 last)

Independiente Petrolero0-3Nacional Potosi
Nacional Potosi2-1Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero1-2Nacional Potosi
Nacional Potosi0-3Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero1-1Nacional Potosi
Independiente Petrolero0-5Nacional Potosi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacional Potosi 1496 · Independiente Petrolero 1496

	Nacional Potosi	Draw	Independiente Petrolero
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	59%	23%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nacional Potosi: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacional Potosi	Independiente Petrolero
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.6	1.8 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.6	4.8 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.00

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 17:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.57▲	Bet365 1.57
X	4.33 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00
2	5.00 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 13.4%

Time*	1	X	2
05:52 +3’	1.53	4.33	5.00
15:26 +5’	1.57▲	4.20▼	5.00
23:06 +4’	1.57	4.20	5.25▲
04:13 +5’	1.57	3.80▼	5.50▲
11:40 +2’	1.60▲	3.90▲	5.25▼
17:30 +8’	1.57▼	4.00▲	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:18	1.56	3.39	4.21
11:35 +7’	1.58▲	3.81▲	4.19▼
17:17 +21’	1.56▼	3.86▲	4.24▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional Potosi 4–1–1 Independiente Petrolero

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Independiente Petrolero	0-3 HT 0-0	Nacional Potosi
30/11/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Nacional Potosi	2-1 HT 0-0	Independiente Petrolero
09/11/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Independiente Petrolero	1-2 HT 0-2	Nacional Potosi
06/09/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Nacional Potosi	0-3 HT 0-1	Independiente Petrolero
22/06/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Independiente Petrolero	1-1 HT 0-0	Nacional Potosi
22/02/25 America Friendlies	Independiente Petrolero	0-5 HT 0-2	Nacional Potosi

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Always Ready	15	10	4	1	32	9	34
2	Bolivar	15	9	3	3	36	16	30
3	The Strongest	16	8	6	2	26	20	30
4	Oriente Petrolero	16	8	2	6	29	20	26
5	Real Potosi	15	6	6	3	22	11	24
6	Guabira	15	7	3	5	26	27	24
7	Club Aurora	15	5	7	3	23	22	22
8	Independiente Petrolero	15	6	4	5	22	21	22
9	Blooming	15	5	6	4	20	16	21
10	Nacional Potosi	15	5	3	7	22	21	18
11	Real Oruro	15	5	2	8	27	38	17
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	16	5	2	9	18	32	17
13	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	15	5	1	9	24	31	16
14	GV San Jose	15	2	6	7	14	22	12
15	Real Tomayapo	15	3	3	9	11	31	12
16	Universitario De Vinto	16	3	2	11	20	35	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacional Potosi	Independiente Petrolero
Academia de Balompie Boliviano	2-0 W	1-3 L
The Strongest	2-3 L	2-1 W
Oriente Petrolero	0-1 L	1-2 L
Real Tomayapo	4-1 W	1-2 L
Real Oruro	1-4 L	3-0 W
Real Potosi	1-1 D	1-2 L
Club Aurora	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Nacional Potosi (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacional Potosi

DLWDLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
08/08	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
06/08	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	2-3	3	4	L
03/08	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
27/07	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	3-1	4-1	4	3	W
21/07	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-4	4	4	L
12/07	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
10/07	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
18/05	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-2	0	10	L
14/05	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	1	4	D

Independiente Petrolero

DWLLLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
08/08	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	2-1	1	7	W
05/08	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
01/08	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	3-0	2	6	W
26/07	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	9	5	L
22/07	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
16/07	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-3	2	9	L
13/07	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
14/05	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	3-1	5	4	W
10/05	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacional Potosi vs Independiente Petrolero?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional Potosi win (59%). Probabilities: Nacional Potosi 59%, draw 23%, Independiente Petrolero 18%.

How many goals are expected in Nacional Potosi vs Independiente Petrolero?

The model expects 3 goals (Nacional Potosi 1.99 · Independiente Petrolero 1.01), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacional Potosi vs Independiente Petrolero?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.