Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 06/08, 14:45
Prediction: Ferroviario Maputo vs Baía de Pemba F.C
Team pages: Ferroviario Maputo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.68Total
Ferroviario Maputo1.31
Baía de Pemba F.C0.37
1X2
Ferroviario Maputo
Draw
Baía de Pemba F.C
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 59%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Ferroviario Maputo
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Baía de Pemba F.C
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ferroviario Maputo
3–1–1
Baía de Pemba F.C
(5 last)
- Baía de Pemba F.C3-2Ferroviario Maputo
- Ferroviario Maputo0-0Baía de Pemba F.C
- Ferroviario Maputo1-0Baía de Pemba F.C
- Ferroviario Maputo3-0Baía de Pemba F.C
- Ferroviario Maputo1-0Baía de Pemba F.C
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ferroviario Maputo 1484 · Baía de Pemba F.C 1461
| Ferroviario Maputo | Draw | Baía de Pemba F.C | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 31% | 9% |
| Market | 62% | 27% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.68 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Ferroviario Maputo: 3-1-1.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ferroviario Maputo | Baía de Pemba F.C | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.1 | 0 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 0/80/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5 | 6 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.1 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviario Maputo 3–1–1 Baía de Pemba F.C
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/25 Mozambique Mocambola | Baía de Pemba F.C | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Ferroviario Maputo |
| 02/08/25 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario Maputo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Baía de Pemba F.C |
| 24/08/24 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario Maputo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Baía de Pemba F.C |
| 02/07/23 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario Maputo | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Baía de Pemba F.C |
| 25/11/19 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario Maputo | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Baía de Pemba F.C |
Standings · Mozambique Mocambola
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Black Bulls | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 20 |
| 2 | Ferroviario Beira | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 20 |
| 3 | Costa Do Sol | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | UD Songo | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 16 |
| 5 | Ferroviario de Nampula | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| 6 | Clube Ferroviário de Nacala | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 12 |
| 7 | Ferroviario Maputo | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Ferroviario Lichinga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 11 |
| 9 | LD Sofala | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 11 |
| 10 | Vilankulo FC | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| 11 | AD Pemba | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 8 |
| 12 | Chingale de Tete | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| 13 | Baía de Pemba F.C | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| 14 | CD Maxaquene | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ferroviario Maputo | Baía de Pemba F.C |
|---|---|---|
| Ferroviario Lichinga | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Vilankulo FC | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| LD Sofala | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| UD Songo | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Chingale de Tete | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 0 W 4 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Ferroviario Maputo (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ferroviario Maputo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 25/06 | Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 21/06 | Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/06 | LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Matchedje de Maputo Mozambique Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 22/05 | UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 18/05 | Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 13/05 | CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Baía de Pemba F.C
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 01/07 | Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 26/06 | UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 18/06 | Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola |
0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 14/05 | Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/05 | Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ferroviario Maputo vs Baía de Pemba F.C?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferroviario Maputo win (61%). Probabilities: Ferroviario Maputo 61%, draw 29%, Baía de Pemba F.C 10%.
How many goals are expected in Ferroviario Maputo vs Baía de Pemba F.C?
The model expects 1.68 goals (Ferroviario Maputo 1.31 · Baía de Pemba F.C 0.37), with a 52% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ferroviario Maputo vs Baía de Pemba F.C?
The model gives a 59% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.