Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 14/08, 14:45

Prediction: Ferroviario de Nampula vs Black Bulls

Team pages: Ferroviario de Nampula · Black Bulls

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

Ferroviario de Nampula0.93

Black Bulls1.09

1X2

30% 33% 38%

Ferroviario de Nampula Draw Black Bulls

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ferroviario de Nampula 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWDWWD

Black Bulls 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLLDWDWWW

Head-to-head

Ferroviario de Nampula 1–2–2 Black Bulls (5 last)

Ferroviario de Nampula0-3Black Bulls
Black Bulls1-1Ferroviario de Nampula
Black Bulls2-1Ferroviario de Nampula
Black Bulls2-2Ferroviario de Nampula
Black Bulls0-1Ferroviario de Nampula

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferroviario de Nampula 1546 · Black Bulls 1535

	Ferroviario de Nampula	Draw	Black Bulls
Our model	29%	33%	38%
Market	30%	32%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Black Bulls: 2-2-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferroviario de Nampula	Black Bulls
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.3 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.3	3.3 / 7.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X2.80

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 22.05

Under 21.75

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:24 +15’	3.00	2.80	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviario de Nampula 1–2–2 Black Bulls

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/08/25 Mozambique Mocambola	Ferroviario de Nampula	0-3 HT 0-1	Black Bulls
27/08/24 Mozambique Mocambola	Black Bulls	1-1 HT 0-0	Ferroviario de Nampula
04/06/23 Mozambique Mocambola	Black Bulls	2-1 HT 1-0	Ferroviario de Nampula
20/11/22 Mozambique Mocambola	Black Bulls	2-2 HT 1-2	Ferroviario de Nampula
06/08/21 Mozambique Mocambola	Black Bulls	0-1 HT 0-1	Ferroviario de Nampula

Standings · Mozambique Mocambola

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Black Bulls	11	6	5	0	14	3	23
2	Ferroviario Beira	11	6	5	0	14	5	23
3	Costa Do Sol	11	5	4	2	15	8	19
4	UD Songo	10	4	5	1	13	9	17
5	Ferroviario de Nampula	9	5	2	2	12	11	17
6	Ferroviario Maputo	11	4	3	4	7	5	15
7	Ferroviario Lichinga	10	4	3	3	8	8	15
8	Vilankulo FC	11	2	6	3	14	12	12
9	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	9	3	3	3	6	8	12
10	LD Sofala	11	2	5	4	6	13	11
11	AD Pemba	9	2	2	5	5	12	8
12	CD Maxaquene	11	1	4	6	5	12	7
13	Baía de Pemba F.C	10	0	5	5	3	8	5
14	Chingale de Tete	10	0	4	6	1	9	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferroviario de Nampula	Black Bulls
LD Sofala	3-1 W	4-1 W
Ferroviario Beira	2-2 D	0-0 D
Ferroviario Lichinga	2-1 W	1-0 W
Vilankulo FC	0-3 L	1-1 D
AD Pemba	2-1 W	2-0 W
Baía de Pemba F.C	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Black Bulls (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ferroviario de Nampula

WLWWLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
07/08	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
02/07	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
28/06	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
17/06	Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
19/05	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
14/05	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
10/05	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
29/11	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	3-0	–	–	W

Black Bulls

DWLLDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
05/08	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
24/07	Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
28/06	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	1-1	1	3	D
21/06	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	4-1	5	1	W
17/06	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	13	5	D
07/06	CFV Vulcano Mozambique Cup	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
07/06	Vulcano Mozambique Cup	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
21/05	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
17/05	UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferroviario de Nampula vs Black Bulls?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Black Bulls win (38%). Probabilities: Ferroviario de Nampula 30%, draw 33%, Black Bulls 38%.

How many goals are expected in Ferroviario de Nampula vs Black Bulls?

The model expects 2.02 goals (Ferroviario de Nampula 0.93 · Black Bulls 1.09), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferroviario de Nampula vs Black Bulls?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.