Football · Qatar Stars League · 22/10, 18:45
Prediction: Al Gharafa vs Al-Ahli Doha
Team pages: Al Gharafa · Al-Ahli Doha
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.42Total
Al Gharafa1.73
Al-Ahli Doha1.69
1X2
Al Gharafa
Draw
Al-Ahli Doha
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Al Gharafa
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Al-Ahli Doha
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Al Gharafa
2–1–3
Al-Ahli Doha
(6 last)
- Al Gharafa1-4Al-Ahli Doha
- Al-Ahli Doha1-3Al Gharafa
- Al Gharafa2-0Al-Ahli Doha
- Al-Ahli Doha1-0Al Gharafa
- Al Gharafa3-3Al-Ahli Doha
- Al Gharafa1-2Al-Ahli Doha
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Al Gharafa 1446 · Al-Ahli Doha 1476
| Al Gharafa | Draw | Al-Ahli Doha | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| Market | 39% | 24% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Al-Ahli Doha: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Al Gharafa | Al-Ahli Doha | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.2 | 2.1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/80/10% | 40/10/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.8 | 2.3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Gharafa 2–1–3 Al-Ahli Doha
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/26 Qatar Stars League | Al Gharafa | 1-4 HT 1-0 | Al-Ahli Doha |
| 25/10/25 Qatar Stars League | Al-Ahli Doha | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Al Gharafa |
| 22/01/25 Qatar Stars League | Al Gharafa | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Al-Ahli Doha |
| 18/08/24 Qatar Stars League | Al-Ahli Doha | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Al Gharafa |
| 08/05/24 Qatar Emir Cup | Al Gharafa | 3-3 HT 1-3 | Al-Ahli Doha |
| 24/02/24 Qatar Stars League | Al Gharafa | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Al-Ahli Doha |
Standings · Qatar Stars League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| 2 | Al Sadd | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 13 | 12 |
| 3 | Al-Arabi Doha | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Al Duhail | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Al-Shamal SC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | Al-Wakrah SC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 8 |
| 7 | Al-Ahli Doha | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
| 8 | Al-Shahaniya SC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 7 |
| 9 | Lusail | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Al Gharafa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 5 |
| 11 | Qatar SC Doha | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Sailiya SC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Al Gharafa | Al-Ahli Doha |
|---|---|---|
| Al-Rayyan SC | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Al-Wakrah SC | 2-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Lusail | 0-0 D | 3-3 D |
| Al Sadd | 1-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Al Duhail | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Al Gharafa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Al-Rayyan SC Qatar Stars League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 08/10 | Al-Wakrah SC Qatar Stars League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 11/09 | Lusail Qatar Stars League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | Al Sadd Qatar Stars League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 27/08 | Al-Shamal SC Qatar Stars League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 21/08 | Al-Shahaniya SC Qatar Stars League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/04 | Al-Shahaniya SC Qatar Stars League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 08/04 | Al-Wakrah SC Qatar Stars League |
1-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 04/04 | Al Duhail Qatar Stars League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 18/03 | Al-Ahli Doha Qatar Stars League |
1-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
Al-Ahli Doha
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Al-Wakrah SC Qatar Stars League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Al Sailiya SC Qatar Stars League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 11/09 | Al-Rayyan SC Qatar Stars League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 03/09 | Qatar SC Doha Qatar Stars League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 28/08 | Lusail Qatar Stars League |
1-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Al Sadd Qatar Stars League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 27/04 | Umm Salal Qatar Stars League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 08/04 | Al Duhail Qatar Stars League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 03/04 | Al Sailiya SC Qatar Stars League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 18/03 | Al Gharafa Qatar Stars League |
0-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Al Gharafa vs Al-Ahli Doha?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Gharafa win (39%). Probabilities: Al Gharafa 39%, draw 24%, Al-Ahli Doha 37%.
How many goals are expected in Al Gharafa vs Al-Ahli Doha?
The model expects 3.42 goals (Al Gharafa 1.73 · Al-Ahli Doha 1.69), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Al Gharafa vs Al-Ahli Doha?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.